ملاحظات

مقدمة

(1)

Under European Community guidelines, France and Italy were required to end all exchange controls by 1 July 1990 but France implemented these six months earlier in order to show its commitment to the principles of free movement of goods, capital and people in Europe.

(2)

Stone, M. (2015). The trillion fold increase in computing power, visualized. Gizmodo [online]. Available at https://gizmodo.com/the-trillion-fold-increase-in-computing-power-visualiz-1706676799.

(3)

Smith, B., and Browne, C. A. (2019). Tools and weapons: The promise and the peril of the digital age. New York, NY: Penguin Press.

(4)

Filardo, A., Lombardi, M., and Raczko, M. (2019). Measuring financial cycle time. Bank of England Staff Working Paper No. 776 [online]. Available at https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-paper/2019/measuring-financial-cycle-time.

(5)

Bruno, V., and Shin, H. S. (2015). Cross-border banking and global liquidity. Review of Economic Studies, 82(2), 535–564.

(6)

Borio, C., Disyatat, P., and Rungcharoenkitkul, P. (2019). What anchors for the natural rate of interest? BIS Working Papers No. 777 [online]. Available at https://www.bis.org/publ/work777.html.

(7)

Borio, C. (2013). On time, stocks and flows: Understanding the global macroeconomic challenges. National Institute of Economic and Social Research, 225(1), 3–13.

(8)

See Marks, H. (2018). Mastering the cycle: Getting the odds on your side (p. 293). Boston, MA: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt.

الجزء الأول: دروس من الماضي: أشكال الدورات ومحركاتها

الفصل الأول: إدارة الدورة في ظل ظروف شديدة الاختلاف

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Lovell, H. (2013). Battle of the quants. The Hedge Fund Journal, p. 87.

(2)

Cawley, L. (2015). Ozone layer hole: How its discovery changed our lives. BBC [online]. Available at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-31602871.

(3)

In fact, this wasn’t the first global live event. This had already been achieved in 1967 with Our World, which had used satellites to beam to a global audience of 400,000 to 700,000 people, the biggest ever at the time, and included appearances and performances from Pablo Picasso, Maria Callas, and the famous UK entry, The Beatles, who performed ‘All You Need Is Love’ for the first time.

(4)

See Fukuyama, F. (1989). The end of history? The National Interest, 16, 3–18.

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http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/september/16/newsid_2519000/2519013.stm.

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The Maastricht Treaty, officially known as the Treaty on European Union, marked the beginning of ‘a new stage in the process of creating an ever closer union among the peoples of Europe’. It laid the foundations for the euro single currency and also expanded cooperation between countries in several areas. For details, see Five things you need to know about the Maastricht Treaty. (2017). ECB [online]. Available at https://www.ecb.europa.eu/explainers/tell-me-more/html/25_years_maastricht.en.html.

(7)

Michael Fish subsequently argued that these comments related to Florida and were linked to a news bulletin before the weather forecast, but the severity of the storm was not generally anticipated.

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https://phys.org/news/2019-01-geoscientists-insist-weather-accurate.html.

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Why weather forecasts are so often wrong. (2016) The Economist explains.

(10)

See BBC news website: Crash was economists’ ‘Michael Fish’ moment, says Andy Haldane, 6 January 2017, where they quote ‘Remember that? Michael Fish getting up: “There’s no hurricane coming but it will be very windy in Spain”. Very similar to the sort of reports central banks—naming no names—issued pre-crisis: “There is no hurricane coming but it might be very windy in the sub-prime sector”’.

(11)

https://wwwf.imperial.ac.uk/~bin06/M3A22/queen-lse.pdf.

(12)

An, A., Jalles, J. T., and Loungani, P. (2018). How well do economists forecast recessions? IMF Working Paper No. 18/39 [online]. Available at https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2018/03/05/How-Well-Do-Economists-Forecast-Recessions-45672.

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There were those who did warn about the risks of downturn and the papers written by these people are useful guides to the signals that they had identified. Nouriel Roubini gave a speech warning about the collapse in the US housing market and its implications in September 2006 to the IMF (see Roubini, N. (2007). The risk of a U.S. hard landing and implications for the global economy and financial markets. New York: New York University [online]. Available at https://www.imf.org/External/NP/EXR/Seminars/2007/091307.htm). Raghu Rajan gave a speech in 2005 warning of the excessive risks in financial markets risks: Rajan, R. J. (2005). Financial markets, financial fragility, and central banking. The Greenspan era: Lessons for the future, sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, WY. The Bank of International Settlements (BIS) warned in its July 2007 annual report that there were significant risks to the global economy.

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Loewenstein, G., Scott, R., and Cohen J. D. (2008). Neuroeconomics. Annual Review of Psychology, 59, 647–672.

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Keynes also argued that investors are affected, particularly in uncertain times, by what other people do.

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A good summary of the literature on behavioural finance and markets can be found in Shiller, R. J. (2003). From efficient markets theory to behavioral finance. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 17(1), 83– 104.

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Kindleberger, C. (1996). Manias, panics, and crashes (3rd ed.). New York, NY: Basic Books.

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For a detailed discussion of some of the literature, see Baddeley, M. (2010). Herding, social influence and economic decision-making: Socio-psychological and neuroscientific analyses. Philosophical Traditions of The Royal Society [online]. Available at https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2009.0169.

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See Sunstein, C. R., and Thaler, R. (2016). The two friends who changed how we think about how we think. The New Yorker [online]. Available at https://www.newyorker.com/books/page-turner/the-two-friends-who-changed-how-we-think-about-how-we-think.

(20)

Kahneman, D., and Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263–292.

(21)

Akerlof, G., and Shiller, R. J. (2010). Animal spirits: How human psychology drives the economy, and why it matters for global capitalism. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

(22)

https://ritholtz.com/2004/04/the-theory-of-reflexivity-by-george-soros/.

(23)

Malmendier, U., and Nagel, S. (2016). Learning from inflation experiences. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(1), 53–87.

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Ferguson, R. W. (2005). Recessions and recoveries associated with asset-price movements: What do we know? Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, Stanford, CA.

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Aikman, D., Lehnert, A., Liang, N., and Modugno, M. (2017). Credit, financial conditions, and monetary policy transmission. Hutchins Center Working Paper #39 [online]. Available at https://www.brookings.edu/research/credit-financial-conditions-and-monetary-policy-transmission.

(27)

Dhaoui, A., Bourouis, S., and Boyacioglu, M. A. (2013). The impact of investor psychology on stock markets: Evidence from France. Journal of Academic Research in Economics, 5(1), 35–59.

الفصل الثاني: العوائد الطويلة الأجل

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Ainger, J. (2019). 100-year bond yielding just over 1% shows investors’ desperation. Bloomberg [online]. Available at https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019–06–25/austria-weighs-another-century-bond-for-yield-starved-investors.

(2)

Mehra, R., and Prescott, E. C. (1985). The equity premium: A puzzle. Journal of Monetary Economics, 15(2), 145–161.

الفصل الثالث: دورة الأسهم: تحديد المراحل

(1)

The output gap is usually described as the amount by which the actual output of an economy falls short of its potential output.

الفصل الرابع: عوائد الأصول على مدار الدورة

(1)

Mueller-Glissmann, C., Wright, I., Oppenheimer, P., and Rizzi, A. (2016). Reflation, equity/bond correlation and diversification desperation. London, UK: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

(2)

Goobey, G. H. R. (1956). Speech to the Association of Superannuation and Pension Funds. The pensions archive [online]. Available at http://www.pensionsarchive.org.uk/27/.

الفصل الخامس: أنماط الاستثمار على مدار الدورة

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Full definitions are available at https://www.msci.com/eqb/methodology/meth_docs/MSCI_Dec07_GIMIVGMethod.pdf.

(2)

Graham, B., and Dodd, D. L. (1934). Security analysis. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill.

(3)

Fama, E., and French, K. (1998). Value versus growth: The international evidence. Journal of Finance, 53(6), 1975–1999.

(4)

Macaulay, F. R. (1938). Some theoretical problems suggested by the movements of interest rates, bond yields, and stock prices in the United States Since 1856. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.

الجزء الثاني: طبيعة أسواق الثيران الصاعدة والدببة الهابطة وأسبابها: العوامل المؤدية إليها والإشارات الدالة عليها

الفصل السادس: ضروريات أسواق الدببة الهابطة: طبيعتها وشكلها

(1)

http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/september/16/newsid_2519000/2519013.stm.

(2)

See Borio, C., and Lowe, P. (2002). Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: Exploring the nexus. BIS Working Papers No. 114 [online]. Available at https://www.bis.org/publ/work114.html.

(3)

Oppenheimer, P., and Bell, S. (2017). Bear necessities: Identifying signals for the next bear market. London, UK: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

(4)

A useful discussion about the value of the yield curve in predicting recessions can be found in Benzoni, L., Chyruk, O., and Kelley, D. (2018). Why does the yield-curve slope predict recessions? Chicago Fed Letter No. 404.

(5)

A discussion of a broad recession risk indicator and the private sector imbalance can be found in Struyven, D., Choi, D., and Hatzius, J. (2019). Recession risk: Still moderate. New York, NY: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

الفصل السابع: طبيعة أسواق الثيران الصاعدة وشكلها

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Post-war reconstruction and development in the golden age of capitalism. United Nations (2017). World Economic and Social Survey 2017.

(2)

Norwood, B. (1969). The Kennedy round: A try at linear trade negotiations. Journal of Law and Economics, 12(2), 297–319.

(3)

The end of the Bretton Woods System. IMF [online]. Available at https://www.imf.org/external/about/histend.htm.

(4)

Modigliani, F., and Cohn, R. A. (1979). Inflation, rational valuation and the market. Financial Analysts Journal, 35(2), 24–44.

(5)

Ritter, J., and Warr, R. S. (2002). The decline of inflation and the bull market of 1982–1999. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 37(01), 29–61.

(6)

Privatisation in Europe, coming home to roost. (2002). The Economist.

(7)

Bernanke, B. (2010, Sept. 2). Causes of the recent financial and economic crisis. Testimony before the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, Washington, DC.

(8)

Phillips, M. (2019). The bull market began 10 years ago. Why aren’t more people celebrating? New York Times [online]. Available at https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/09/business/bull-market-anniversary.html.

الفصل الثامن: ظهور الفقاعات: العلامات التحذيرية على حدوث فقاعة

(1)

Gurkaynak, R. (2005). Econometric tests of asset price bubbles: Taking stock. Finance and Economics Discussion Series. Washington, DC: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

(2)

Ferguson, R. W. (2005). Recessions and recoveries associated with asset-price movements: What do we know? Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, Stanford, CA.

(3)

Pasotti, P., and Vercelli, A. (2015). Kindleberger and financial crises. FESSUD Working Paper Series No. 104 [online]. Available at http://fessud.eu/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Kindleberger-and-Financial-Crises-Fessud-final_Working-Paper-104.pdf.

(4)

A comprehensive account can be found in Chancellor, E. (2000). Devil take the hindmost: A history of financial speculation. New York, NY: Plume.

(5)

See Thompson, E. (2007). The tulipmania: Fact or artifact? Public Choice, 130(1-2), 99–114.

(6)

Evans, R. (2014). How (not) to invest like Sir Isaac Newton. The Telegraph [online]. Available at https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/10848995/How-not-to-invest-like-Sir-Isaac-Newton.html.

(7)

Cutts, R. L. (1990). Power from the ground up: Japan’s land bubble. The Harvard Business Review [online]. Available at https://hbr.org/1990/05/power-from-the-ground-up-japans-land-bubble.

(8)

Johnston, E. (2009). Lessons from when the bubble burst. The Japan Times [online]. Available at https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2009/01/06/reference/lessons-from-when-the-bubble-burst/.

(9)

Okina, K., Shirakawa, M., and Shiratsuka, S. (2001). The asset price bubble and monetary policy: Experience of Japan’s economy in the late 1980s and its lessons. Monetary and Economic Studies, 19(S1), 395–450.

(10)

Turner, G. (2003). Solutions to a liquidity trap. London, UK: GFC Economics.

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Norris, F. (2000). The year in the markets; 1999: Extraordinary winners and more losers. New York Times [online]. Available at https://www.nytimes.com/2000/01/03/business/the-year-in-the-markets-1999-extraordinary-winners-and-more-losers.html.

(12)

See Sorescu, A., Sorescu, S. M., Armstrong, W. J., and Devoldere, B. (2018). Two centuries of innovations and stock market bubbles. Marketing Science Journal, 37(4), 507–684.

(13)

See Frehen, R. G. P., Goetzmann, W. N., and Rouwenhorst, K. G. (2013). New evidence on the first financial bubble. Journal of Financial Economics, 108(3), 585–607.

(14)

Odlyzko, A. (2010). Collective hallucinations and inefficient markets: The British railway mania of the 1840s. SSRN [online]. Available at https://ssrn.com/abstract=1537338.

(15)

Evans, How (not) to invest like Sir Isaac Newton.

(16)

Lucibello, A. (2014). Panic of 1873. In D. Leab (Ed.), Encyclopedia of American recessions and depressions (pp. 227–276). Santa Barbara, CA: ABCCLIO.

(17)

Browne, E. (2001). Does Japan offer any lessons for the United States? New England Economic Review, 3, 3–18.

(18)

Stephen King of HSBC wrote a report ‘Bubble Trouble’ in which he identified significant risks of overvaluations and potential economic consequences before the technology bubble burst in 2000.

(19)

See Masson, P. (2001). Globalization facts and figures. IMF Policy Discussion Paper No. 01/4 [online]. Available at https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/IMF-Policy-Discussion-Papers/Issues/2016/12/30/Globalization-Facts-and-Figures-15469.

(20)

Johnston, Lessons from when the bubble burst.

(21)

Perez, C. (2009). The double bubble at the turn of the century: Technological roots and structural implications. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 33(4), 779–805.

(22)

A collateralised debt obligation (CDO) is a structured financial product that pools together assets that generate cash, such as mortgages, and then packages this asset pool into different tranches that can be sold to investors. Each varies significantly in risk profile.

(23)

Pezzuto, I. (2012). Miraculous financial engineering or toxic finance? The genesis of the U.S. subprime mortgage loans crisis and its consequences on the global financial markets and real economy. Journal of Governance and Regulation, 1(3), 113–124.

(24)

Cutts, Power from the ground up.

(25)

Smith, E. L. (1925). Common stocks as long-term investments. New York, NY: Macmillan.

(26)

Guild, S. E. (1931). Stock growth and discount tables. Boston, MA: Financial Publishing Company.

(27)

Dice, C. A. (1931). New levels in the stock market. Journal of Political Economy, 39(4), 551–554.

(28)

Graham, B. (1949). The intelligent investor. New York, NY: HarperBusiness.

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Cooper, M., Dimitrov, O., and Rau, P. (2001). A Rose.com by any other name. The Journal of Finance, 56(6), 2371–2388.

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Smith, A. (1848). The bubble of the age; or, The fallacies of railway investment, railway accounts, and railway dividends. London, UK: Sherwood, Gilbert and Piper.

(31)

Sterngold, J. (1991). Nomura gets big penalties. New York Times, October 9, Section D, p. 1.

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Reid, T. R. (1991). Japan’s scandalous summer of ‘91. Washington Post [online]. Available at https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1991/08/03/japans-scandalous-summer-of-91/e066bc12-90f2-4ce1-bc05-70298b675340/.

(33)

Ferguson, N. (2012). The ascent of money. London, UK: Penguin.

الجزء الثالث: دروس من أجل المستقبل: التركيز على حقبة ما بعد الأزمة المالية؛ ماذا تغيَّر؟ وماذا تعني هذه الحقبة للمستثمرين؟

الفصل التاسع: كيف تغيَّرت الدورة بعد الأزمة المالية؟

(1)

There are many useful accounts of the triggers for and consequences of the crisis, and how things have changed since. See, for example, Tooze, A. (2018). Crashed: How a decade of financial crises changed the world. London, UK: Allen Lane.

(2)

Romer, C., and Romer, D. (2017). New evidence on the aftermath of financial crises in advanced countries. American Economic Review, 107(10), 3072–3118.

(3)

Mason, P. (2011). Thinking outside the 1930s box. BBC [online]. Available at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15217615.

(4)

TARP was a programme of the US government that helped to stabilise the financial system through a series of measures that included the TARP bailout programme, authorising $700 billion to bail out banks, AIG, and auto companies. It also helped credit markets and homeowners. Quantitative easing (QE)—or large-scale asset purchases—refers to monetary policy that entails a central bank creating money that is used to buy predetermined amounts of government bonds or other financial assets in order to inject liquidity into the economy.

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Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) is a programme of the European Central Bank under which the Bank makes purchases (outright transactions) in secondary, sovereign bond markets, under certain conditions, of bonds issued by euro area member states.

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Balatti, M., Brooks, C., Clements, M. P., and Kappou, K. (2016). Did quantitative easing only inflate stock prices? Macroeconomic evidence from the US and UK. SSRN [online]. Available at https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2838128. They argue in this paper that median estimates indicate a peak impact on equities, at the end of the 24-month horizon, of about 30% for the FTSE All-Share and about 50% for the S&P 500.

(7)

Jorda, O., Schularick, M., Taylor, A. M., and Ward, F. (2018). Global financial cycles and risk premiums. Working Paper Series 2018-5, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco [online]. Available at http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/working-papers/2018/05/.

(8)

Terrones, M., Kose, A., and Claessens, S. (2011). Financial cycles: What? How? When? IMF Working Paper No. 11/76, [online]. Available at https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2016/12/31/Financial-Cycles-What-How-When-24775.

(9)

Romer and Romer, New evidence on the aftermath of financial crises in advanced countries.

(10)

Caballero, R. J., and Farhi, E. (2017). The safety trap. The Review of Economic Studies, 85(1), 223–274.

(11)

See Cunliffe, J. (2017). The Phillips curve: Lower, flatter or in hiding? Bank of England [online]. Available at https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/speech/2017/jon-cunliffe-speech-at-oxford-economics-society.

(12)

Borio, C., Piti, D., and Juselius, M. (2013). Rethinking potential output: Embedding information about the financial cycle. BIS Working Papers No. 404 [online]. Available at https://www.bis.org/publ/work404.html argue that ‘to the extent that monetary policy, which sets the price of leverage, can influence the financial cycle, it too may have a persistent impact on the economy’s long-run path, and hence also on real interest rates. If the definition of equilibrium also precludes the occurrence of boom-bust cycles, as one would reasonably expect, then it may not be possible to define a natural rate independently of the monetary regime’.

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See more on female participation in Blau, F. D., and Kahn, L. M. (2013). Female labor supply: Why is the US falling behind? NBER Working Paper No. 18702 [online]. Available at https://www.nber.org/papers/w18702.

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Across the rich world, an extraordinary jobs boom is under way. (2019, May 23). The Economist.

(15)

Kuhn, P., and Mansour, H. (2014). Is internet job search still ineffective? Economic Journal, 124(581), 1213–1233.

(16)

Earnings before interest, depreciation and tax.

الفصل العاشر: تحت الصفر: تأثير انخفاض عوائد السندات

(1)

See How quantitative easing affects bond yields: Evidence from Switzerland. Christensen, J., and Krogstrup, S. (2019). Royal Economic Society [online]. Available at https://www.res.org.uk/resources-page/how-quantitative-easing-affects-bond-yields-evidence-from-switzerland.html.

(2)

See Gilchrist, S., and Zakrajsek, E. (2013). The impact of the Federal Reserve’s large-scale asset purchase programmes on corporate credit risk. NBER Working Paper No. 19337 [online]. Available at https://www.nber.org/papers/w19337.

(3)

See Christensen, J. H. E., and Speigel, M. M. (2019). Negative interest rates and inflation expectations in Japan. FEBSF Economic Letter, 22.

(4)

See, for example, http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/eqnotes/webcasts/ERP/ImpliedERP.ppt.

(5)

See Molyneux, P., Reghezza, A., Thornton, J., and Xie, R. (2019). Did negative interest rates improve bank lending? Journal of Financial Services Research, July 2019.

(6)

See Gozluklu, A. (n.d.). How do demographics affect interest rates? The University of Warwick [online]. Available at https://warwick.ac.uk/newsandevents/knowledgecentre/business/finance/interestrates/.
Others have argued that the overall effect of an ageing population has been to reduce the ‘equilibrium’ on the dependency ratio, with some estimates suggesting that demographics reduced the equilibrium rate on interest by at least one and a half percentage points between 1990 and 2014 (Carvalho, C., Ferro, A., and Nechio, F. (2016). Demographics and real interest rates: Inspecting the mechanism. Working Paper Series 2016-5. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco [online]. Available at http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/working-papers/wp2016-05.pdf).

(7)

See Antolin, P., Schich, S., and Yermi, J. (2011). The economic impact of low interest rates on pension funds and insurance companies. OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends, 2011(1). See page 25 footnote 2.

(8)

For a discussion on the asset/liability mix and the risks of ‘searching for yield’, see Can pension funds and life insurance companies keep their promises? (2015). OECD Business and Finance Outlook 2015 [online]. Available at https://www.oecd.org/finance/oecd-business-and-finance-outlook-2015-9789264234291-en.htm.

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Gagnon, J., Raskin, M., Remache, J., and Sack, B. (2011). The financial market effects of the Federal Reserve’s large-scale asset purchases. International Journal of Central Banking, 7(1), 3–43. These authors also found that US state and municipal sponsors with weak balance sheets have increased their risk exposure as bond yields have fallen. They estimate that up to a third of funds’ total risk was related to underfunding and low interest rates between 2002 and 2016. Also see Lu, L., Pritsker, M., Zlate, A., Anadu, K., and Bohn, J. (2019). Reach for yield by U.S. public pension funds. FRB Boston Risk and Policy Analysis Unit Paper No. RPA 19-2 [online]. Available at https://www.bostonfed.org/publications/risk-and-policy-analysis/2019/reach-for-yield-by-us-public-pension-funds.aspx.

(10)

Lian, C., Ma, Y., and Wang, C. (2018). Low interest rates and risk taking: Evidence from individual investment decisions. The Review of Financial Studies, 32(6), 2107–2148.

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See Antolin, Schich, and Yermi, (2011). The economic impact of low interest rates on pension funds and insurance companies.

(12)

See Belke, A. H. (2013). Impact of a low interest rate environment—Global liquidity spillovers and the search-for-yield. Ruhr Economic Paper No. 429.

الفصل الحادي عشر: تأثير التكنولوجيا على الدورة

(1)

See Internet World Stats: www.internetworldstats.com.

(2)

Buring, E., and van Zanden, J. L. (2009). Charting the “Rise of the West”: Manuscripts and printed books in Europe; A long-term perspective from the sixth through eighteenth centuries. The Journal of Economic History, 69(2), 409–445.

(3)

George Hudson and the 1840s railway mania. (2012). Yale School of Management Case Studies [online]. Available at https://som.yale.edu/our-approach/teaching-method/case-research-and-development/cases-directory/george-hudson-and-1840s.

(4)

Brookes, M., and Wahhaj, Z. (2000). Is the internet better than electricity? Goldman Sachs Global Economics Paper No. 49.

(5)

For discussion, see Odlyzko, A. (2010). Collective hallucinations and inefficient markets: The British railway mania of the 1840s. SSRN [online]. Available at https://ssrn.com/abstract=1537338.

(6)

https://www.fhs.swiss/eng/statistics.html.

(7)

McNary, D. (2019, Jan. 2). 2018 worldwide box office hits record as Disney dominates. Variety [online]. Available at https://variety.com/2019/film/news/box-office-record-disney-dominates-1203098075/.

(8)

https://www.classicfm.com/discover-music/millennials-are-going-nuts-for-vinyl-revival/.

(9)

See Antras, P., and Voth, H. (2003). Factor prices and productivity growth during the British Industrial Revolution. Explorations in Economic History, 40(1), 52–77; see also Harley, N. F. R., and Harley, C. K. (1992). Output growth and the British Industrial Revolution: A restatement of the Crafts-Harley view. Economic History Review, 45(4), 703–730.

(10)

Crafts, N. (2004). Productivity growth in the Industrial Revolution: A new growth accounting perspective. The Journal of Economic History, 64(2), 521–535.

(11)

Mühleisen, M. (2018). The long and short of the digital revolution. Finance & Development [online] 55(2). Available at https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2018/06/impact-of-digital-technology-on-economic-growth/muhleisen.htm.

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Hatzius, J., Phillips, A., Mericle, D., Hill, S., Struyven, D., Choi, D., Taylor, B., and Walker, R. (2019). Productivity paradox v2.0: The price of free goods. New York, NY: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

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http://www.tvhistory.tv/1960–2000-TVManufacturers.htm.

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How to tame the tech titans. (2018). The Economist 18th June 2018, Leaders Section.

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Hammond, R., Kostin, D. J., Snider, B., Menon, A., Hunter, C., and Mulford, N. (2019). Concentration, competition, and regulation: ‘Superstar’ firms and the specter of antitrust scrutiny. New York, NY: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

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الملخص والاستنتاجات

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SINTEF. (2013). Big data, for better or worse: 90% of world’s data generated over last two years. ScienceDaily [online]. Available at https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/05/130522085217.htm.

(2)

Turner, A. (2017). The path to a low-carbon economy. Climate 2020 [online]. Available at https://www.climate2020.org.uk/path-low-carbon-economy.