زائر

تسجيل الاشتراك

لديك حساب؟ تسجيل دخول

  • ePub Logo
  • PDF Logo
  • Kindle Logo

المراجع

  • Abelson, R. P., 1986, Beliefs are like possessions, Journal for the Theory of Social Behaviour, 16, 223–50, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-5914.1986.tb00078.x.
  • Abito, J. M., & Salant, Y., 2018, The effect of product misperception on economic outcomes: Evidence from the extended warranty market. Review of Economic Studies, 86, 2285–318, https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdy045.
  • Acerbi, A., 2019, Cognitive attraction and online misinformation, Palgrave Communications, 5, 1–7, https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-019-0224-y.
  • Aggarwal, C. C., 2018, Neural networks and deep learning, New York: Springer. Ainslie, G., 2001, Breakdown of will, New York: Cambridge University Press.
  • Alexander, S., 2018, Conflict vs. mistake, Slate Star Codex, https://slatestarcodex.com/2018/01/24/conflict-vs-mistake/.
  • Ali, R., 2011, Dear colleague letter (policy guidance from the assistant secretary for civil rights), US Department of Education, https://www2.ed.gov/about/offices/list/ocr/letters/colleague-201104.html.
  • Allais, M., 1953, Le comportement de l’homme rationnel devant le risque: Critique des postulats et axiomes de l’école Americaine, Econometrica, 21, 503–46, https://doi.org/10.2307/1907921.
  • American Academy of Arts and Sciences, 2018, Perceptions of science in America, Cambridge, MA: American Academy of Arts and Sciences, https://www.amacad.org/publication/perceptions-science-america.
  • Appiah, K. A., 2010, The honor code: How moral revolutions happen, New York: W. W. Norton.
  • Arbital, 2020, Bayes’ rule, https://arbital.com/p/bayes_rule/?l=1zq.
  • Arkes, H. R., Gigerenzer, G., & Hertwig, R., 2016, How bad is incoherence? Decision, 3, 20–39, https://doi.org/10.1037/dec0000043.
  • Arkes, H. R., & Mellers, B. A., 2002, Do juries meet our expectations? Law and Human Behavior, 26, 625–39, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1020929517312.
  • Armstrong, S. L., Gleitman, L. R., & Gleitman, H., 1983, What some concepts might not be, Cognition, 13, 263–308, https://doi.org/10.1016/0010-0277(83)90012-4.
  • Ashby, F. G., Alfonso-Reese, L. A., Turken, A. U., & Waldron, E. M., 1998, A neuropsychological theory of multiple systems in category learning, Psychological Review, 105, 442–81, https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-295X.105.3.442.
  • Astell, M., 1730/2010, Some reflections upon marriage. To which is added a preface, in answer to some objections. Farmington Hills, MI: Gale ECCO.
  • Bacon, F., 1620/2017, Novum organum. Seattle, WA: CreateSpace.
  • Bankoff, C., 2014, Dick Cheney simply does not care that the CIA tortured innocent people, New York Magazine, Dec. 14, https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2014/12/cheney-alright-with-torture-of-innocent-people.html.
  • Bar-Hillel, M., 1980, The base-rate fallacy in probability judgments, Acta Psychologica, 44, 211–33, https://doi.org/10.1016/0001-6918(80)90046-3.
  • Baron, J., 2012, Applying evidence to social programs, New York Times, Nov. 29. https://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/29/applying- evidence-to-social-programs/.
  • Baron, J., 2019, Actively open-minded thinking in politics, Cognition, 188, 8–18. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cognition.2018.10.004.
  • Baron, J., & Jost, J. T., 2019, False equivalence: Are liberals and conservatives in the United States equally biased? Perspectives on Psychological Science, 14, 292–303. https://doi.org/10.1177/174569161878 876.
  • Basterfield, C., Lilienfeld, S. O., Bowes, S. M., & Costello, T. H., 2020, The Nobel disease: When intelligence fails to protect against irrationality, Skeptical Inquirer, May. https://skepticalinquirer.org/2020/05/the-nobel-disease-when-intelligence-fails-to-protect-against-irrationality/.
  • Batt, J., 2004, Stolen innocence: A mother’s fight for justice—the authorised story of Sally Clark, London: Ebury Press.
  • Baumard, N., & Boyer, P. 2013, Religious beliefs as reflective elaborations on intuitions: A modified dual-process model, Current Directions in Psychological Science, 22, 295–300, https://doi.org/10.1177/0963721413478610.
  • Baumeister, R. F., Stillwell, A., & Wotman, S. R., 1990, Victim and perpetrator accounts of interpersonal conflict: Autobiographical narratives about anger, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 59, 994–1005, https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.59.5.994.
  • Baumeister, R. F., & Tierney, J., 2012, Willpower: Rediscovering the greatest human strength, London: Penguin.
  • Bazelon, E., & Larimore, R., 2009, How often do women falsely cry rape? Slate, Oct. 1, https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2009/10/why-it-s-so-hard-to-quantify-false-rape-charges.html.
  • BBC News, 2004, Avoid gold teeth, says Turkmen leader, Apr. 7, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/3607467.stm.
  • BBC News, 2020, The Crown: Netflix has “no plans” for a fiction warning, Dec. 6, https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-55207871.
  • Beccaria, C, 1764/2010, On crimes and punishments and other writings (R. Davies, trans.; R. Bellamy, ed.), New York: Cambridge University Press.
  • Bell, E. T., 1947, The development of mathematics (2nd ed.), New York: McGraw-Hill.
  • Bentham, J., 1789, An introduction to the principles of morals and legislation. https://www.econlib.org/library/Bentham/bnthPML.html.
  • Bentham, J., & Crompton, L., 1785/1978, Offences against one’s self: Paederasty (part I), Journal of Homosexuality, 3, 389–405, https://doi.org/10.1300/J082v03 n04_07.
  • Binmore, K., 1991, Fun and games: A text on game theory, Boston: Houghton Mifflin, Binmore, K., 2007, Game theory: A very short introduction, New York: Oxford University Press.
  • Binmore, K., 2008, Do conventions need to be common knowledge? Topoi, 27, 17–27. https://doi-org.ezp-prod1.hul.harvard.edu/10.1007/s11245-008-9033-4.
  • Blackwell, M., 2020, Black Lives Matter and the mechanics of conformity, Quillette, Sept. 17, https://quillette.com/2020/09/17/black-lives-matter-and-the-mechanics-of-conformity/.
  • Block, W., 1976/2018, Defending the undefendable, Auburn, AL: Ludwig von Mises Institute.
  • Bloom, P., 2003, Descartes’ baby: How the science of child development explains what makes us human, New York: Basic Books.
  • Bond, M., 2009, Risk school, Nature, 461, 1189–92, Oct. 28.
  • Bornstein, D., 2012, The dawn of the evidence-based budget, New York Times, May 30. https://opinionator.blos.nytimes.com/2012/05/30/worthy-of-government-funding-prove-it.
  • Bornstein, D., & Rosenberg, T., 2016, When reportage turns to cynicism, New York Times, Nov. 14, https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/15/opinion/when-reportage-turns-to-cynicism.html.
  • Braverman, B., 2018, Why you should steer clear of extended warranties, Consumer Reports, Dec. 22, https://www.consumerreports.org/extended-warranties/steer-clear-extended-warranties/.
  • Breyer, S., 1993, Breaking the vicious circle: Toward effective risk regulation, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
  • Bruine de Bruin, W., Parker, A. M., & Fischhoff, B., 2007, Individual differences in adult decision-making competence, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 92, 938–56. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.92.5.938.
  • Brunvand, J. H., 2014, Too good to be true: The colossal book of urban legends (rev. ed.), New York: W. W. Norton.
  • Bump, P., 2020, Trump’s effort to steal the election comes down to some utterly ridiculous statistical claims, Washington Post, Dec. 9, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/12/09/trumps-effort-steal-election-comes-down-some-utterly-ridiculous-statistical-claims/.
  • Burns, K., 2010, At veterinary colleges, male students are in the minority, American Veterinary Medical Association, Feb. 15, https://www.avma.org/javma-news/2010-02-15/veterinary-colleges-male-students-are-minority.
  • Caldeira, K., Emanuel, K., Hansen, J., & Wigley, T., 2013, Top climate change scientists’ letter to policy influencers, CNN, Nov. 3, https://www.cnn.com/2013/11/03/world/nuclear-energy-climate-change-scientists-letter/index.html.
  • Campbell, B., & Manning, J., 2018, The rise of victimhood culture: Microaggressions, safe spaces, and the new culture wars, London: Palgrave Macmillan.
  • Caplan, B., 2017, What’s wrong with the rationality community, EconLog, Apr. 4, https://www.econlib.org/archives/2017/04/whats_wrong_wit_22.html.
  • Carroll, L., 1895, What the tortoise said to Achilles, Mind, 4, 178–80.
  • Carroll, L., 1896/1977, Symbolic logic, In W. W. Bartley, ed., Lewis Carroll’s Symbolic Logic, New York: Clarkson Potter.
  • Carroll, S. M., 2016, The big picture: On the origins of life, meaning, and the universe itself, New York: Penguin Random House.
  • Cesario, J., & Johnson, D. J., 2020, Statement on the retraction of “Officer characteristics and racial disparities in fatal officer-involved shootings,” https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/dj57k.
  • Chagnon, N. A., 1997, Yanomamö (5th ed.), Fort Worth, TX: Harcourt Brace. Chapman, L. J., & Chapman, J. P., 1967, Genesis of popular but erroneous psychodiagnostic observations, Journal ofhttps://doi.org/10.1037/h0024670, Abnormal Psychology, 72, 193–204.
  • Chapman, L. J., & Chapman, J. P., 1969, Ill sory correlation as an obstacle to the use of valid psychodiagnostic signs, Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 74, 271–80, https://doi.org/10.1037/h0027592.
  • Charlesworth, T. E. S., & Banaji, M. R., 2019, Patterns of implicit and explicit attitudes: I. Long-term change and stability from 2007 to 2016, Psychological Science, 30, 174–92, https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797618813087.
  • Cheng, P. W., & Holyoak, K. J., 1985, Pragmatic reasoning schemas, Cognitive Psychology, 17, 391–416, https://doi.org/10.1016/0010-0285(85)90014-3.
  • Chivers, T., 2019, The AI does not hate you: Superintelligence, rationality and the race to save the world, London: Weidenfeld & Nicolson.
  • Chomsky, N., 1972/2006, Language and mind (extended ed.), New York: Cambridge University Press.
  • Chwe, M. S.-Y., 2001, Rational ritual: Culture, coordination, and common knowledge, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
  • Clegg, L. F., 2012, Protean free will, Unpublished manuscript, California Institute of Technology, https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20120328-152031480.
  • Cohen, I. B., 1997, Science and the Founding Fathers: Science in the political thought of Thomas Jefferson, Benjamin Franklin, John Adams, and James Madison, New York: W. W. Norton.
  • Cohn, A., Maréchal, M. A., Tannenbaum, D., & Zünd, C. L., 2019, Civic honesty around the globe, Science, 365, 70–73, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aau8712.
  • Cohon, R., 2018, Hume’s moral philosophy, In E. N. Zalta, ed., The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/hume-moral/.
  • Cole, M., Gay, J., Glick, J., & Sharp, D. W., 1971, The cultural context of learning and thinking, New York: Basic Books.
  • Combs, B., & Slovic, P., 1979, Newspaper coverage of causes of death, Journalism Quarterly, 56, 837–49.
  • Cosmides, L., 1989, The logic of social exchange: Has natural selection shaped how humans reason? Studies with the Wason selection task, Cognition, 31, 187–276, https://doi.org/10.1016/0010-0277(89)90023-1.
  • Cosmides, L., & Tooby, J., 1996, Are humans good intuitive statisticians after all? Rethinking some conclusions from the literature on judgment under uncertainty, Cognition, 58, 1–73. https://doi.org/10.1016/0010-0277(95)00664-8.
  • Coyne, J. A., 2015, Faith versus fact: Why science and religion are incompatible, New York: Penguin.
  • Crockett, Z., 2015, The time everyone “corrected” the world's smartest woman, Priceonomics, Feb. 19, https://priceonomics.com/the-time-everyone-corrected-the-worlds-smartest/.
  • Curtis, G. N., 2020, The Fallacy Files taxonomy of logical fallacies, https://www.fallacyfiles.org/taxonnew.htm.
  • Dasgupta, P., 2007, The Stern Review’s economics of climate change, National Institute Economic Review, 199, 4–7, https://doi.org/10.1177/0027950107077111.
  • Davis, D. B, 1984, Slavery and human progress, New York: Oxford University Press.
  • Dawes, R. M., Faust, D., & Meehl, P. E., 1989, Clinical versus actuarial judgment, Science, 243, 1668–74, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.2648573.
  • Dawkins, R., 1976/2016, The selfish gene (40th anniv. ed.), New York: Oxford University Press.
  • Dawkins, R., 2006, The God delusion. New York: Houghton Mifflin.
  • Dawson, E., Gilovich, T., & Regan, D. T., 2002, Motivated reasoning and performance on the Wason selection task, Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 28, 1379–87, https://doi.org/10.1177/014616702236869.
  • De Freitas, J., Thomas, K., DeScioli, P., & Pinker, S., 2019, Common knowledge, coordination, and strategic mentalizing in human social life, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116, 13751–58, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1905518116.
  • De Lazari-Radek, K., & Singer, P., 2012, The objectivity of ethics and the unity of practical reason, Ethics, 123, 9–31, https://doi.org/10.1086/667837.
  • De Zutter, A., Horselenberg, R., & van Koppen, P. J., 2017, The prevalence of false allegations of rape in the United States from 2006–2010, Journal of Forensic Psychology, 2, https://doi.org/10.4172/2475-319X.1000119.
  • Deary, I. J., 2001, Intelligence: A very short introduction, New York: Oxford University Press.
  • DellaVigna, S., & Kaplan, E., 2007, The Fox News effect: Media bias and voting, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 122, 1187–234, https://doi.org/10.1162/qjec.122.3.1187.
  • Dennett, D. C., 2006, Breaking the spell: Religion as a natural phenomenon, New York: Penguin.
  • Dennett, D. C., 2013, Intuition pumps and other tools for thinking, New York: W. W. Norton.
  • Ditto, P. H., Clark, C. J., Liu, B. S., Wojcik, S. P., Chen, E. E., et al. 2019, Partisan bias and its discontents, Perspectives on Psychological Science, 14, 304–16, https://doi.org/10.1177/1745691618817753.
  • Ditto, P. H., Liu, B. S., Clark, C. J., Wojcik, S. P., Chen, E. E., et al. 2019, At least bias is bipartisan: A meta-analytic comparison of partisan bias in liberals and conservatives, Perspectives on Psychological Science, 14, 273–91, https://doi.org/10.1177/1745691617746796.
  • Donaldson, H., Doubleday, R., Hefferman, S., Klondar, E., & Tummarello, K., 2011, Are talking heads blowing hot air? An analysis of the accuracy of forecasts in the political media, Hamilton College, https://www.hamilton.edu/documents/Analysis-of-Forcast-Accuracy-in-the-Political-Media.pdf.
  • Douglass, F. 1852/1999. What to the slave is the Fourth of July? In P. S. Foner, ed., Frederick Douglass: Selected speeches and writings, Chicago: Lawrence Hill. Duffy, B., 2018, The perils of perception: Why we’re wrong about nearly everything, London: Atlantic Books.
  • Eagle, A., 2019, Chance versus randomness, In E. N. Zalta, ed., The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/chance-randomness/.
  • Earman, J., 2002, Bayes, Hume, Price, and miracles, Proceedings of the British Academy, 113, 91–109.
  • Edwards, A. W. F., 1996, Is the Pope an alien? Nature, 382, 202, https://doi.org/10.1038/382202b0.
  • Einstein, A., 1981, Albert Einstein, the human side: New glimpses from his archives (H. Dukas & B. Hoffman, eds.), Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
  • Eisenstein, E. L., 2012, The printing revolution in early modern Europe (2nd ed.), New York: Cambridge University Press.
  • Eliot, G., 1883/2017, Essays of George Eliot (T. Pinney, ed.), Philadelphia: Routledge. Ellickson, R. C., 1991, Order without law: How neighbors settle disputes, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
  • Elster, J., ed., 1998, Deliberative democracy, New York: Cambridge University Press.
  • Emerson, R. W., 1841/1993, Self-reliance and other essays, New York: Dover.
  • Erasmus, D., 1517/2017, The complaint of peace: To which is added, Antipolemus; or, the plea of reason, religion, and humanity, against war, Miami, FL: HardPress.
  • Erceg, N., Galić, Z., & Bubić, A., 2019, “Dysrationalia” among university students: The role of cognitive abilities, different aspects of rational thought and self-control in explaining epistemically suspect beliefs, Europe’s Journal of Psychology, 15, 159–75, https://doi.org/10.5964/ejop.v15i1.1696.
  • Evans, J. St. B. T., 2012, Dual-process theories of deductive reasoning: Facts and fallacies, In K. J. Holyoak & R. G. Morrison, eds., The Oxford Handbook of Thinking and Reasoning, Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  • Fabrikant, G., 2008, Humbler, after a streak of magic, New York Times, May 11, https://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/11/business/11bill.html.
  • Federal Aviation Administration, 2016, Pilot’s handbook of aeronautical knowledge, Oklahoma City: US Department of Transportation, https://www.faa.gov/regulations_policies/handbooks_manuals/aviation/phak/media/pilot_handbook.pdf.
  • Federal Bureau of Investigation, 2019, Crime in the United States, expanded homicide data table 1, https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2019/crime-in-the-u.s.-2019/tables/expanded-homicide-data-table-1.xls.
  • Feller, W., 1968, An introduction to probability theory and its applications, New York: Wiley.
  • Fiddick, L., Cosmides, L., & Tooby, J., 2000, No interpretation without representation: The role of domain-specific representations and inferences in the Wason selection task, Cognition, 77, 1–79, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0010-0277(00)00085-8.
  • Finkel, E. J., Bail, C. A., Cikara, M., Ditto, P. H., Iyengar, S., et al. 2020, Political sectarianism in America, Science, 370, 533–36, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abe1715.
  • Fishkin, J. S., 2011, When the people speak: Deliberative democracy and public consultation, New York: Oxford University Press.
  • Flaherty, C., 2020, Failure to communicate: Professor suspended for saying a Chinese word that sounds like a racial slur in English, Inside Higher Ed, https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2020/09/08/professor-suspended-saying-chinese-word-sounds-english-slur.
  • Fodor, J. A., 1968, Psychological explanation: An introduction to the philosophy of psychology, New York: Random House.
  • Fox, C., 2020, Social media: How might it be regulated? BBC News, Nov. 12, https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-54901083.
  • Frank, R. H., 1988, Passions within reason: The strategic role of the emotions, New York: W. W. Norton.
  • Frederick, S., 2005, Cognitive reflection and decision making, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 19, 25–42, https://doi.org/10.1257/089533005775196732.
  • French, C, 2012, Precognition studies and the curse of the failed replications.
  • The Guardian, Mar. 15, http://www.theguardian.com/science/2012/mar/15/precognition-studies-curse-failed-replications.
  • Friedersdorf, C., 2018, Why can’t people hear what Jordan Peterson is actually saying? The Atlantic, Jan. 22, https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/01/putting-monsterpaint-onjordan-peterson/550859/.
  • Friesen, J. P., Campbell, T. H., & Kay, A. C., 2015, The psychological advantage of unfalsifiability: The appeal of untestable religious and political ideologies, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 108, 515–29, https://doi.org/10.1037/pspp0000018.
  • Galton, F., 1886, Regression towards mediocrity in hereditary stature, Journal of the Anthropological Institute of Great Britain and Ireland, 15, 246–63.
  • Gampa, A., Wojcik, S. P., Motyl, M., Nosek, B. A., & Ditto, P. H., 2019, (Ideo) logical reasoning: Ideology impairs sound reasoning, Social Psychological and Personality Science, 10, 1075–83, https://doi.org/10.1177/1948550619829059.
  • Gardner, M., 1959, Problems involving questions of probability and ambiguity, Scientific American, 201, 174–82.
  • Gardner, M., 1972, Why the long arm of coincidence is usually not as long as it seems, Scientific American, 227.
  • Gelman, A., & Loken, E., 2014, The statistical crisis in science, American Scientist, 102, 460–65.
  • Gelman, S. A., 2005, The essential child: Origins of essentialism in everyday thought, New York: Oxford University Press.
  • Gettier, E. L., 1963, Is justified true belief knowledge? Analysis, 23, 121–23, Gigerenzer, G., 1991, How to make cognitive illusions disappear: Beyond “heuristics and biases,” European Review of Social Psychology, 2, 83–115, https://doi.org/10.1080/14792779143000033.
  • Gigerenzer, G., 1996, On narrow norms and vague heuristics: A reply to Kahneman and Tversky, Psychological Review, 103, 592–96, https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-295X.103.3.592.
  • Gigerenzer, G., 1998, Ecological intelligence: An adaptation for frequencies, In D. D. Cummins & C. Allen, eds., The evolution of mind, New York: Oxford University Press.
  • Gigerenzer, G., 2004, Gigerenzer’s Law of Indispensable Ignorance, Edge, https://www.edge.org/response-detail/10224.
  • Gigerenzer, G., 2006, Out of the frying pan into the fire: Behavioral reactions to terrorist attacks, Risk Analysis, 26, 347–51, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2006.00753.x.
  • Gigerenzer, G., 2008a, The evolution of statistical thinking, In G. Gigerenzer, ed., Rationality for mortals: How people cope with uncertainty, New York: Oxford University Press.
  • Gigerenzer, G., 2008b, Rationality for mortals: How people cope with uncertainty, New York: Oxford University Press.
  • Gigerenzer, G., 2011, What are natural frequencies? BMJ, 343, d6386, https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.d6386.
  • Gigerenzer, G., 2014, Breast cancer screening pamphlets mislead women, BMJ, 348, g2636, https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.g2636.
  • Gigerenzer, G., 2015, On the supposed evidence for libertarian paternalism, Review of Philosophy and Psychology, 6, 361–83, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13164-015-0248-1.
  • Gigerenzer, G, 2018a, The Bias Bias in behavioral economics, Review of Behavioral Economics, 5, 303–36, https://doi.org/10.1561/105.00000092.
  • Gigerenzer, G., 2018b, Statistical rituals: The replication delusion and how we got there, Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science, 1, 198–218, https://doi.org/10.1177/2515245918771329.
  • Gigerenzer, G., & Garcia-Retamero, R., 2017, Cassandra’s regret: The psychology of not wanting to know, Psychological Review, 124, 179–96.
  • Gigerenzer, G., Hertwig, R., Van Den Broek, E., Fasolo, B., & Katsikopoulos,
  • K. V., 2005, “A 30% chance of rain tomorrow”: How does the public understand probabilistic weather forecasts? Risk Analysis: An International Journal, 25, 623–29, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00608.x.
  • Gigerenzer, G., & Kolpatzik, K., 2017, How new fact boxes are explaining medical risk to millions, BMJ, 357, j2460, https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.j2460.
  • Gigerenzer, G., Krauss, S., & Vitouch, O., 2004, The null ritual: What you always wanted to know about significance testing but were afraid to ask, In D. Kaplan, ed., The Sage Handbook of Quantitative Methodology for the Social Sciences, Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
  • Gigerenzer, G., Swijtink, Z., Porter, T., Daston, L., Beatty, J., et al. 1989, The empire of chance: How probability changed science and everyday life, New York: Cambridge University Press.
  • Gilbert, B., 2019, The 10 most-viewed fake-news stories on Facebook in 2019 were just revealed in a new report, Business Insider, Nov. 6, https://www.businessinsider.com/most-viewed-fake-news-stories-shared-on-facebook-2019-2019-11.
  • Gilovich, T., Vallone, R., & Tversky, A., 1985, The hot hand in basketball: On the misperception of random sequences, Cognitive Psychology, 17, 295–314, https://doi.org/10.1016/0010-0285(85)90010-6.
  • Glaeser, E. L., 2004, Psychology and the market, American Economic Review, 94, 408–13, http://www.jstor.org/stable/3592919.
  • Goda, G. S., Levy, M. R., Manchester, C. F., Sojourner, A., & Tasoff, J., 2015, The role of time preferences and exponential-growth bias in retirement savings, National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series, no. 21482, https://doi.org/10.3386/w21482.
  • Goldstein, J. S, 2010, Chicken dilemmas: Crossing the road to cooperation, In I. W. Zartman & S. Touval, eds., International cooperation: The extents and limits of multilateralism, New York: Cambridge University Press.
  • Goldstein, J. S., 2011, Winning the war on war: The decline of armed conflict worldwide, New York: Penguin.
  • Goldstein, J. S., & Qvist, S. A., 2019, A bright future: How some countries have solved climate change and the rest can follow, New York: PublicAffairs.
  • Goldstein, J. S., Qvist, S. A., & Pinker, S., 2019, Nuclear power can save the world, New York Times, Apr. 6, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/06/opinion/sunday/climate-change-nuclear-power.html.
  • Goldstein, R. N., 2006, Betraying Spinoza: The renegade Jew who gave us modernity, New York: Nextbook/Schocken.
  • Goldstein, R. N., 2010, 36 arguments for the existence of God: A work of fiction, New York: Pantheon.
  • Goldstein, R. N., 2013, Plato at the Googleplex: Why philosophy won’t go away, New York: Pantheon.
  • Goldstein-Rose, S., 2020, The 100% solution: A plan for solving climate change, New York: Melville House.
  • Good, I., 1996, When batterer becomes murderer, Nature, 381, 481, https://doi.org/10.1038/381481a0.
  • Goodfellow, I., Bengio, Y., & Courville, A., 2016, Deep learning, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
  • Gould, S. J., 1988, The streak of streaks, New York Review of Books, https://www.nybooks.com/articles/1988/08/18/the-streak-of-streaks/.
  • Gould, S. J., 1999, Rocks of ages: Science and religion in the fullness of life, New York: Ballantine.
  • Gracyk, T., 2020. Hume’s aesthetics, In E. N. Zalta, ed., Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, https://plato.stanford.edu/archives/sum2020/entries/hume-aesthetics/.
  • Granberg, D., & Brown, T. A., 1995, The Monty Hall dilemma, Personality & Social Psychology Bulletin, 21, 711–23, https://doi.org/10.1177/0146167295217006.
  • Grayling, A. C., 2007, Toward the light of liberty: The struggles for freedom and rights that made the modern Western world, New York: Walker.
  • Green, D. M., & Swets, J. A., 1966, Signal detection theory and psychophysics, New York: Wiley.
  • Greene, J., 2013, Moral tribes: Emotion, reason, and the gap between us and them, New York: Penguin.
  • Grice, H. P., 1975, Logic and conversation, In P. Cole & J. L. Morgan, eds., Syntax and semantics, vol. 3, Speech acts, New York: Academic Press.
  • Haidt, J., 2012, The righteous mind: Why good people are divided by politics and religion, New York: Pantheon.
  • Haidt, J., 2016, Why universities must choose one telos: truth or social justice.
  • Heterodox Academy, Oct. 16, https://heterodoxacademy.org/blog/one-telos-truth-or-social-justice-2/.
  • Hájek, A., 2019, Interpretations of probability, In E. N. Zalta, ed., The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, https://plato.stanford.edu/archives/fall2019/entries/probability-interpret/.
  • Hallsworth, M., & Kirkman, E., 2020, Behavioral insights, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
  • Hamilton, I. A., 2018, Jeff Bezos explains why his best decisions were based off intuition, not analysis, Inc., Sept. 14, https://www.inc.com/business-insider/amazon-ceo-jeffbezos-says-his-best-decision-were-made-when-he-followed-his-gut.html.
  • Harris, S., 2005, The end of faith: Religion, terror, and the future of reason, New York: W. W. Norton.
  • Hastie, R., & Dawes, R. M., 2010, Rational choice in an uncertain world: The psychology of judgment and decision making (2nd ed.), Los Angeles: Sage.
  • Henderson, L., 2020, The problem of induction, In E. N. Zalta, ed., The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, https://plato.stanford.edu/archives/spr2020/entries/induction-problem/.
  • Henrich, J., Heine, S. J., & Norenzayan, A., 2010, The weirdest people in the world? Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 33, 61–83, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0140 525X0999152X.
  • Hertwig, R., & Engel, C., 2016, Homo ignorans: Deliberately choosing not to know, Perspectives on Psychological Science, 11, 359–72.
  • Hertwig, R., & Gigerenzer, G., 1999, The “conjunction fallacy” revisited: How intelligent inferences look like reasoning errors, Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 12, 275–305, https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-0771(199912)12:4<275::AID-BDM323>3.0.CO;2-M.
  • Hobbes, T., 1651/1957, Leviathan, New York: Oxford University Press.
  • Hoffrage, U., Lindsey, S., Hertwig, R., & Gigerenzer, G., 2000, Communicating statistical information, Science, 290, 2261-62, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.290.5500.2261.
  • Holland, P. W., 1986, Statistics and causal inference, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 81, 945–60, https://doi.org/10.2307/2289064.
  • Homer, 700 BCE/2018, The Odyssey (E. Wilson, trans.), New York: W. W. Norton. Hood, B., 2009, Supersense: Why we believe in the unbelievable, New York: Harper-Collins.
  • Horowitz, D. L., 2001, The deadly ethnic riot, Berkeley: University of California Press.
  • Hume, D., 1739/2000, A treatise of human nature, New York: Oxford University Press.
  • Hume, D., 1748/1999, An enquiry concerning human understanding, New York: Oxford University Press.
  • Hunt, L., 2007, Inventing human rights: A history, New York: W. W. Norton, Ichikawa, J. J., & Steup, M., 2018, The analysis of knowledge, In E. N. Zalta, ed., The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/knowledge-analysis/.
  • Ioannidis, J. P. A., 2005, Why most published research findings are false, PLoS Medicine, 2, e124, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.0020124.
  • James, W., 1890/1950, The principles of psychology, New York: Dover.
  • Jarvis, S., Deschenes, O., & Jha, A., 2019, The private and external costs of Germany’s nuclear phase-out, https//haas.berkeley.edu/wp-content/uploads/WP304.pdf.
  • Jenkins, S., 2020, The Crown’s fake history is as corrosive as fake news, The Guardian, Nov. 16, http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/nov/16/the-crown-fake-history-news-tv-series-royal-family-artistic-licence.
  • Jeszeck, C. A., Collins, M. J., Glickman, M., Hoffrey, L., & Grover, S., 2015.
  • Retirement security: Most households approaching retirement have low savings, United States Government Accountability Office, https://www.gao.gov/assets/680/670153.pdf.
  • Johnson, D. J., & Cesario, J., 2020, Reply to Knox and Mummolo and Schimmack and Carlsson: Controlling for crime and population rates, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117, 1264–65, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1920184117.
  • Johnson, D. J., Tress, T., Burkel, N., Taylor, C., & Cesario, J., 2019, Officer characteristics and racial disparities in fatal officer-involved shootings, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116, 15877–82, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1903856116.
  • Johnson, S., 1963, The letters of Samuel Johnson with Mrs. Thrale’s genuine letters to him (R. W. Chapman, ed.), New York: Oxford University Press.
  • Jones, J. M., 2018, Confidence in higher education down since 2015, Gallup Blog, Oct. 9, https://news.gallup.com/opinion/gallup/242441/confidence-higher-education-down-2015.aspx.
  • Joyner, J., 2011, Ranking the pundits: A study shows that most national columnists and talking heads are about as accurate as a coin flip, Outside the Beltway, May 3, https://www.outsidethebeltway.com/ranking-the-pundits/.
  • Kaba, M., 2020, Yes, we mean literally abolish the police, New York Times, June 12, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/12/opinion/sunday/floyd-abolish-defund-police.html.
  • Kahan, D. M., 2013, Ideology, motivated reasoning, and cognitive reflection, Judgment and Decision Making, 8, 407–24, http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2182588.
  • Kahan, D. M., 2015, Climate-science communication and the measurement problem, Political Psychology, 36, 1–43, https://doi.org/10.1111/pops.12244.
  • Kahan, D. M., Hoffman, D. A., Braman, D., Evans, D., & Rachlinski, J. J., 2012, “They saw a protest”: Cognitive illiberalism and the speech-conduct distinction, Stanford Law Review, 64, 851–906.
  • Kahan, D. M., Peters, E., Dawson, E. C., & Slovic, P., 2017, Motivated numeracy and enlightened self-government, Behavioural Public Policy, 1, 54–86, https://doi.org/10.1017/bpp.2016.2.
  • Kahan, D. M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L. L., et al. 2012. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks, Nature Climate Change, 2, 732–35, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1547.
  • Kahan, D. M., Wittlin, M., Peters, E., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L. L., et al. 2011. The tragedy of the risk-perception commons: Culture conflict, rationality conflict, and climate change, Yale Law & Economics Research Paper, 435, http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1871503.
  • Kahneman, D., 2002, Daniel Kahneman—facts, The Nobel Prize, https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/2002/kahneman/facts/.
  • Kahneman, D., 2011, Thinking, fast and slow, New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux. Kahneman, D., Slovic, P., & Tversky, A., 1982, Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases, New York: Cambridge University Press.
  • Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A., 1972, Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness, Cognitive Psychology, 3, 430–54, https://doi.org/10.1016/0010-0285(72)90016-3.
  • Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A, 1979, Prospect theory: An analysis of decisions under risk, Econometrica, 47, 263–91, https://doi.org/10.1142/9789814417358_0006.
  • Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A., 1996, On the reality of cognitive illusions, Psychological Review, 103, 582–91, https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-295X.103.3.582.
  • Kaplan, R. D., 1994, The coming anarchy, The Atlantic, https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1994/02/the-coming-anarchy/304670/.
  • Kelemen, D., & Rosset, E., 2009, The human function compunction: Teleological explanation in adults, Cognition, 111, 138–43, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cognition.2009.01.001.
  • Kendler, K. S., Kessler, R. C., Walters, E. E., MacLean, C., Neale, M. C., et al. 2010, Stressful life events, genetic liability, and onset of an episode of major depression in women, Focus, 8, 459–70, https://doi.org/10.1176/foc.8.3.foc459.
  • Kenny, C., 2011, Getting better: Why global development is succeeding—and how we can improve the world even more, New York: Basic Books.
  • Kessler, G., Rizzo, S., & Kelly, M., 2020, Trump is averaging more than 50 false or misleading claims a day, Washington Post, Oct. 22, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/10/22/president-trump-is-averaging-more-than-50-false-or-misleading-claims-day/.
  • King, G., Keohane, R. O., & Verba, S., 1994, Designing social inquiry: Scientific inference in qualitative research, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, Kingdon, J., 1993, Self-made man: Human evolution from Eden to extinction? New York: Wiley.
  • Kissinger, H., 2018, How the Enlightenment ends, The Atlantic, June, https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2018/06/henry-kissinger-ai-could-mean-the-end-of-human-history/559124/.
  • Knox, D., & Mummolo, J., 2020, Making inferences about racial disparities in police violence, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117, 1261-62, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1919418117.
  • Kors, A. C., & Silverglate, H. A., 1998, The shadow university: The betrayal of liberty on America’s campuses, New York: Free Press.
  • Kräenbring, J., Monzon Penza, T., Gutmann, J., Muehlich, S., Zolk, O., et al. 2014, Accuracy and completeness of drug information in Wikipedia: A comparison with standard textbooks of parmacology, PLoS ONE, 9, e106930, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0106930.
  • Krämer, W., & Gigerenzer, G, 2005, How to confuse with statistics, or: The use and misuse of conditional probabilities, Statistical Science, 20, 223–30, https://doi.org/10.1214/08834230500000029.
  • Kunda, Z., 1990, The case for motivated reasoning, Psychological Bulletin, 108, 480–98, https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-2909.108.3.480.
  • Laibson, D., 1997, Golden eggs and hyperbolic discounting, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 112, 443–77, https://doi.org/10.1162/003355397555253,
  • Lake, B. M., Ullman, T. D., Tenenbaum, J. B., & Gershman, S. J., 2017, Building machines that learn and think like people, Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 39, 1–101, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0140525X16001837.
  • Lane, R., 2021, A truth reckoning: Why we’re holding those who lied for Trump accountable, Forbes, Jan. 7, https://www.forbes.com/sites/randalllane/2021/01/07/a-truth-reckoning-why-were-holding-those-who-lied-for-trump-accountable/?sh=5fedd2605710.
  • Lankford, A., & Madfis, E., 2018, Don’t name them, don’t show them, but report everything else: A pragmatic proposal for denying mass killers the attention they seek and deterring future offenders, American Behavioral Scientist, 62, 260–79, https://doi.org/10.1177/0002764217730854.
  • Lee, R. B., & Daly, R., eds. 1999, The Cambridge Encyclopedia of Hunters and Gatherers. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
  • Lehrer, J., 2010, The truth wears off, New Yorker, Dec. 5, https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2010/12/13/the-truth-wears-off.
  • Leibniz, G. W., 1679/1989, On universal synthesis and analysis, or the art of discovery and judgment, In L. E. Loemker, ed., Philosophical papers and letters, New York: Springer.
  • Levitt, S. D., & Dubner, S. J., 2009, Freakonomics: A rogue economist explores the hidden side of everything, New York: William Morrow.
  • Lewis, D. K., 1969, Convention: A philosophical study, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
  • Lewis, M., 2016, The undoing project: A friendship that changed our minds, New York: W. W. Norton.
  • Lewis, M. K., 2016, Too dumb to fail: How the GOP betrayed the Reagan revolution to win elections (and how it can reclaim its conservative roots), New York: Hachette. Lewis-Kraus, G., 2016, The great A.I. awakening, New York Times Magazine, Dec. 14, p. 12, https://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/14/magazine/the-great-ai-awakening.html.
  • Liberman, M. Y., 2004, If P, so why not Q? Language Log, Aug. 5, http://itre.cis.upenn.edu/~myl/languagelog/archives/001314.html.
  • Lichtenstein, S., & Slovic, P., 1971, Reversals of preference between bids and choices in gambling decisions, Journal of Experimental Psychology, 89, 46–55, https://doi.org/10.1037/h0031207.
  • Liebenberg, L., 1990, The art of tracking: The origin of science, Cape Town: David Philip.
  • Liebenberg, L., 2013/2021, The origin of science: The evolutionary roots of scientific reasoning and its implications for tracking science (2nd ed.), Cape Town: Cyber-Tracker, https://cybertracker.org/downloads/tracking/Liebenberg-2013-The-Origin-of-Science.pdf.
  • Liebenberg, L., 2020, Notes on tracking and trapping: Examples of hunter-gatherer ingenuity. Unpublished manuscript, https://stevenpinker.com/files/pinker/files/liebenberg.pdf.
  • Liebenberg, L.,//Ao,/A., Lombard, M., Shermer, M., Xhukwe,/U., et al. 2021, Tracking science: An alternative for those excluded by citizen science, Citizen Science: Theory and Practice, 6(1), 6, https://doi.org/10.5334/cstp.284.
  • Lilienfeld, S. O., Ammirati, R., & Landfield, K., 2009, Giving debiasing away: Can psychological research on correcting cognitive errors promote human welfare? Perspectives on Psychological Science, 4, 390–98, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-6924.2009.01144.x.
  • Locke, J., 1689/2015, The second treatise of civil government, Peterborough, Ont.: Broadview Press.
  • Lockwood, A. H., Welker-Hood, K., Rauch, M., & Gottlieb, B., 2009, Coal’s assault on human health: A report from Physicians for Social Responsibility, https://www.psr.org/blog/resource/coals-assault-on-human-health/.
  • Loftus, E. F., Doyle, J. M., Dysart, J. E., & Newirth, K. A., 2019, Eyewitness testimony: Civil and criminal (6th ed.), Dayton, OH: LexisNexis.
  • Lord, C. G., Ross, L., & Lepper, M. R., 1979, Biased assimilation and attitude polarization: The effects of prior theories on subsequently considered evidence, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 37, 2098–109, https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.37.11.2098.
  • Luce, R. D., & Raiffa, H., 1957, Games and decisions: Introduction and critical survey, New York: Dover.
  • Lukianoff, G., 2012, Unlearning liberty: Campus censorship and the end of American debate, New York: Encounter Books.
  • Lukianoff, G., & Haidt, J., 2018, The coddling of the American mind: How good intentions and bad ideas are setting up a generation for failure, New York: Penguin.
  • Lynn, S. K., Wormwood, J. B., Barrett, L. F., & Quigley, K. S., 2015, Decision making from economic and signal detection perspectives: Development of an integrated framework, Frontiers in Psychology, 6, https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2015.00952.
  • Lyttleton, J., 2020, Social media is determined to slow the spread of conspiracy theories like QAnon, Can they? Millennial Source, Oct. 28, https://themilsource.com/2020/10/28/social-media-determined-to-slow-spread-conspiracy-theories-like-qanon-can-they/.
  • MacAskill, W., 2015, Doing good better: Effective altruism and how you can make a difference, New York: Penguin.
  • Maines, R., 2007, Why are women crowding into schools of veterinary medicine but are not lining up to become engineers? Cornell Chronicle, June 12, https://news.cornell.edu/stories/2007/06/why-women-become-veterinarians-not-engineers.
  • Mann, T. E., & Ornstein, N. J., 2012/2016, It’s even worse than it looks: How the American constitutional system collided with the new politics of extremism (new ed.), New York: Basic Books.
  • Marcus, G. F., 2000, Two kinds of representation, In E. Dietrich & A. B. Markman, eds., Cognitive dynamics: Conceptual and representational change in humans and machines, Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum.
  • Marcus, G. F., 2018, The deepest problem with deep learning, Medium, Dec. 1, https://medium.com/@GaryMarcus/the-deepest-problem-with-deep-learning-91c5991f5695.
  • Marcus, G. F., & Davis, E., 2019, Rebooting AI: Building artificial intelligence we can trust, New York: Pantheon.
  • Marlowe, F., 2010, The Hadza: Hunter-gatherers of Tanzania, Berkeley: University of California Press.
  • Martin, G. J., & Yurukoglu, A., 2017, Bias in cable news: Persuasion and polarization, American Economic Review, 107, 2565–99, https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20160812.
  • Maymin, P. Z., & Langer, E. J., 2021, Cognitive biases and mindfulness. Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, 8, 40, https://doi.org/10.1057/s41 599-021-00712-1.
  • Maynard Smith, J., 1982, Evolution and the theory of games, New York: Cambridge University Press.
  • McCarthy, J., 2015, More Americans say crime is rising in U.S. Gallup, Oct. 22, https://news.gallup.com/poll/186308/americans-say-crime-rising.aspx.
  • McCarthy, J., 2019, Americans still greatly overestimate U.S. gay population, Gallup, https://news.gallup.com/poll/259571/americans-greatly-overestimate-gay-population.aspx.
  • McCawley, J. D., 1993, Everything that linguists have always wanted to know about logic—but were ashamed to ask (2nd ed.), Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
  • McClure, S. M., Laibson, D., Loewenstein, G., & Cohen, J. D., 2004, Separate neural systems value immediate and delayed monetary rewards, Science, 306, 503–7, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1100907.
  • McGinn, C., 2012, Truth by analysis: Games, names, and philosophy, New York: Oxford University Press.
  • McNeil, B. J., Pauker, S. G., Sox, H. C., Jr., & Tversky, A., 1982, On the elicitation of preferences for alternative therapies, New England Journal of Medicine, 306, 1259–62, https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJM198205273062103.
  • Meehl, P. E., 1954/2013, Clinical versus statistical prediction: A theoretical analysis and a review of the evidence, Brattleboro, VT: Echo Point Books.
  • Mellers, B. A., Hertwig, R., & Kahneman, D., 2001, Do frequency representations eliminate conjunction effects? An exercise in adversarial collaboration, Psychological Science, 12, 269–75, https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9280.00350.
  • Mellers, B. A., Ungar, L., Baron, J., Ramos, J., Gurcay, B., et al. 2014, Psychological strategies for winning a geopolitical forecasting tournament, Psychological Science, 25, 1106–15, https://do.org/10.1177/0956797614524255.
  • Mercier, H., 2020, Not born yesterday: The science of who we trust and what we believe, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
  • Mercier, H., & Sperber, D., 2011, Why do humans reason? Arguments for an argumentative theory, Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 34, 57–111, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0140525X1000 968.
  • Mercier, H., & Sperber, D., 2017, The enigma of reason, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
  • Mercier, H., Trouche, E., Yama, H., Heintz, C., & Girotto, V., 2015, Experts and laymen grossly underestimate the benefits of argumentation for reasoning, Thinking & Reasoning, 21, 341–55, https://doi.org/10.1080/13546783.2014.981582.
  • Michel, J.-B., Shen, Y. K., Aiden, A. P., Veres, A., Gray, M. K., The Google Books Team, Pickett, J. P., Hoiberg, D., Clancy, D., Norvig, P., Orwant, J., Pinker, S., Nowak, M., & Lieberman-Aiden, E., 2011, Quantitative analysis of culture using millions of digitized books, Science, 331, 176–82.
  • Millenson, J. R., 1965, An inexpensive Geiger gate for controlling probabilities of events, Journal of the Experimental Analysis of Behavior, 8, 345-46.
  • Miller, J. B., & Sanjurjo, A., 2018, Surprised by the hot hand fallacy? A truth in the law of small numbers, Econometrica, 86, 2019–47, https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA14943.
  • Miller, J. B., & Sanjurjo, A., 2019, A bridge from Monty Hall to the hot hand: The principle of restricted choice, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 33, 144–62, https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.33.3.144.
  • Mischel, W., & Baker, N. 1975, Cognitive appraisals and transformations in delay behavior, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 31, 254–61, https://doi.org/10.1037/h0076272.
  • Mlodinow, L., 2009, The drunkard’s walk: How randomness rules our lives, New York: Vintage.
  • Moore, D. W., 2005, Three in four Americans believe in paranormal, Gallup, June 16, https://news.gallup.com/poll/16915/three-four-americans-believe-paranormal.aspx.
  • Morewedge, C. K., Yoon, H., Scopelliti, I., Symborski, C. W., Korris, J. H., et al. 2015, Debiasing decisions: Improved decision making with a single training intervention, Policy Insights from the Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 2, 129–40, https://doi.org/10.1177/2372732215600886.
  • Mueller, J., 2006, Overblown: How politicians and the terrorism industry inflate national security threats, and why we believe them, New York: Free Press.
  • Mueller, J., 2021, The stupidity of war: American foreign policy and the case for complacency, New York: Cambridge University Press.
  • Myers, D. G., 2008, A friendly letter to skeptics and atheists, New York: Wiley. Nagel, T., 1970, The possibility of altruism, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, Nagel, T., 1997, The last word, New York: Oxford University Press.
  • National Research Council, 2003, The polygraph and lie detection, Washington, DC: National Academies Press.
  • National Research Council, 2009, Stren thening forensic science in the United States: A path forward, Washington, DC: National Academies Press.
  • National Science Board, 2014, Science and Engineering Indicators 2014, Alexandria, VA: National Science Foundation, https://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind14/index.cfm/home.
  • National Science Board, 2020, The State of U.S. Science and Engineering 2020, Alexandria, VA: National Science Foundation, https://ncses.nsf.gov/pubs/nsb20201/.
  • Nature editors, 2020a, A four-year timeline of Trump’s impact on science.
  • Nature, Oct. 5, https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-020-02814-3.
  • Nature editors, 2020b, In praise of replication studies and null results, Nature, 578, 489-90, https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-020-00530-6.
  • Nickerson, R. S., 1996, Hempel’s paradox and Wason’s selection task: Logical and psychological puzzles of confirmation, Thinking & Reasoning, 2, 1–31, https://doi.org/10.1080/135467896394546.
  • Nickerson, R. S., 1998, Confirmation bias: A ubiquitous phenomenon in many guises, Review of General Psychology, 2, 175–220, https://doi.org/10.1037/1089-2680.2.2.175.
  • Nolan, D., Bremer, M., Tupper, S., Malakhoff, L., & Medeiros, C., 2019, Barnstable County high crash locations: Cape Cod Commission, https://www.capecodcommission.org/resource-library/file/?url=/dept/commission/team/tr/Reference/Safety-General/Top50CrashLocs_2018Final.pdf.
  • Norberg, J., 2016, Progress: Ten reasons to look forward to the future, London: One-world.
  • Nordhaus, W., 2007, Critical assumptions in the Stern Review on climate change, Science, 317, 201-2, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1137316.
  • Norenzayan, A., Smith, E. E., Kim, B., & Nisbett, R. E., 2002, Cultural preferences for formal versus intuitive reasoning, Cognitive Science, 26, 653–84.
  • Norman, A., 2016, Why we reason: Intention-alignment and the genesis of human rationality, Biology and Philosophy, 31, 685–704, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10539-016-9532-4.
  • Norman, A., 2021, Mental immunity: Infectious ideas, mind parasites, and the search for a better way to think, New York: HarperCollins.
  • Nyhan, B., 2013, Building a better correction: Three lessons from new research on how to counter misinformation, Columbia Journalism Review, http://archives.cjr.org/united_states_project/building_a_better_correction_nyhan_new_misperception_research.php.
  • Nyhan, B., 2018, Fake news and bots may be worrisome, but their political power is overblown, New York Times, Feb. 13, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/13/upshot/fake-news-and-bots-may-be-worrisome-but-their-political-power-is-overblown.html.
  • Nyhan, B., & Reifler, J., 2012, Misinformation and fact-checking: Research findings from social science, Washington, DC: New America Foundation.
  • Nyhan, B., & Reifler, J., 2019, The roles of information deficits and identity threat in the prevalence of misperceptions, Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, 29, 222–44, https://doi.org/10.1080/17457289.2018.1465061.
  • O’Keefe, S. M., 2020, One in three Americans would not get COVID-19 vaccine, Gallup, Aug. 7, https://news.gallup.com/poll/317018/one-three-americans-not-covid-vaccine.aspx.
  • Open Science Collaboration, 2015, Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science. Science, 349, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aac4716.
  • Paresky, P., Haidt, J., Strossen, N., & Pinker, S., 2020, The New York Times surrendered to an outrage mob. Journalism will suffer for it, Politico, May 14, https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/05/14/bret-stephens-new-york-times-outrage-backlash-256494.
  • Parker, A. M., Bruine de Bruin, W., Fischhoff, B., & Weller, J., 2018, Robustness of decision-making competence: Evidence from two measures and an 11-year longitudinal study, Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 31, 380–91, https://doi.org/10.1002/bdm.2059.
  • Pashler, H., & Wagenmakers, E. J. 2012. Editors’ introduction to the special section on replicability in psychological science: A crisis of confidence? Perspectives on Psychological Science, 7, 528–30, https://doi.org/10.1177/174569161 2465253.
  • Paulos, J. A., 1988, Innumeracy: Mathematical illiteracy and its consequences, New York: Macmillan.
  • Payne, J. L., 2004, A history of force: Exploring the worldwide movement against habits of coercion, bloodshed, and mayhem, Sandpoint, ID: Lytton.
  • Pearl, J., 2000, Causality: Models, reasoning, and inference, New York: Cambridge University Press.
  • Pearl, J., & Mackenzie, D., 2018, The book of why: The new science of cause and effect, New York: Basic Books.
  • Pennycook, G., Cannon, T. D., & Rand, D. G., 2018, Prior exposure increases perceived accuracy of fake news, Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 147, 1865–80, https://doi.org/10.1037/xge0000465.
  • Pennycook, G., Cheyne, J. A., Koehler, D. J., & Fugelsang, J. A., 2020, On the belief that beliefs should change according to evidence: Implications for conspiratorial, moral, paranormal, political, religious, and science beliefs, Judgment and Decision Making, 15, 476–98, https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/a7k96.
  • Pennycook, G., Cheyne, J. A., Seli, P., Koehler, D. J., & Fugelsang, J. A., 2012, Analytic cognitive style predicts religious and paranormal belief, Cognition, 123, 335–46, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cognition.2012.03.003.
  • Pennycook, G., & Rand, D. G., 2020a, The cognitive science of fake news, https://psyarxiv.com/ar96c.
  • Pennycook, G., & Rand, D. G., 2020b, Who falls for fake news? The roles of bullshit receptivity, overclaiming, familiarity, and analytic thinking, Journal of Personality, 88, 185–200, https://doi.org/10.1111/jopy.12476.
  • Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life, 2009, Many Americans mix multiple faiths, Washington, DC: Pew Research Center, https://www.pewforum.org/2009/12/09/many-americans-mix-multiple-faiths/.
  • Pinker, S., 1994/2007, The language instinct, New York: HarperCollins. Pinker, S., 1997/2009, How the mind works, New York: W. W. Norton.
  • Pinker, S., 1999/2011, Words and rules: The ingredients of language, New York: HarperCollins.
  • Pinker, S, 2002/2016, The blank slate: The modern denial of human nature, New York: Penguin.
  • Pinker, S., 2007, The stuff of thought: Language as a window into human nature, New York: Viking.
  • Pinker, S., 2010, The cognitive niche: Coevolution of intelligence, sociality, and language, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 107, 8993–99, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0914630107.
  • Pinker, S., 2011, The better angels of our nature: Why violence has declined, New York: Viking.
  • Pinker, S., 2012, Why are states so red and blue? New York Times, Oct. 24, http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/24/why-are-states-so-red-and-blue/?_r=0.
  • Pinker, S., 2015, Rock star psychologist Steven Pinker explains why #thedress looked white, not blue, Forbes, Feb. 28, https://www.forbes.com/sites/matthewherper/2015/02/28/psychologist-and-author-stephen-pinker-explains-thedress/.
  • Pinker, S., 2018, Enlightenment now: The case for reason, science, humanism, and progress, New York: Viking.
  • Pinker, S., & Mehler, J., eds. 1988, Connections and symbols, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
  • Pinker, S., & Prince, A., 2013, The nature of human concepts: Evidence from an unusual source, In S. Pinker, ed., Language, cognition, and human nature: Selected articles, New York: Oxford University Press.
  • Plato, 390–399 BCE/2002, Euthyphro (G. M. A. Grube, trans.), In J. M. Cooper, ed., Plato: Five dialogues—Euthyphro, Apology, Crito, Meno, Phaedo (2nd ed.), Indianapolis: Hackett.
  • Polderman, T. J. C., Benyamin, B., de Leeuw, C. A., Sullivan, P. F., van Bochoven, A., et al. 2015, Meta-analysis of the heritability of human traits based on fifty years of twin studies, Nature Genetics, 47, 702–9, https://doi.org/10.1038/ng.3285.
  • Popper, K. R., 1983, Realism and the aim of science, London: Routledge.
  • Poundstone, W., 1992, Prisoner’s dilemma: John von Neumann, game theory, and the puzzle of the bomb. New York: Anchor.
  • President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, 2016, Report to the President: Forensic science in criminal courts: ensuring scientific validity of feature-comparison methods, https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ostp/PCAST/pcast_forensic_science_report_final.pdf.
  • Priest, G., 2017, Logic: A very short introduction (2nd ed.), New York: Oxford University Press.
  • Proctor, R. N., 2000, The Nazi war on cancer, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
  • Pronin, E., Lin, D. Y., & Ross, L., 2002, The bias blind spot: Perceptions of bias in self versus others, Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 28, 369–81, https://doi.org/10.1177/0146167202286008.
  • Purves, D., & Lotto, R. B., 2003, Why we see what we do: An empirical theory of vision, Sunderland, MA: Sinauer.
  • Rachels, J., & Rachels, S., 2010, The elements of moral philosophy (6th ed.), Columbus, OH: McGraw-Hill.
  • Raemon, 2017, What exactly is the “Rationality Community?” LessWrong, Apr. 9, https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/s8yvtCbbZW2S4WnhE/what-exactly-is-the-rationality-community.
  • Railton, P., 1986, Moral realism, Philosophical Review, 95, 163–207, https://doi.org/10.2307/2185589.
  • Rauch, J., 2018, The constitution of knowledge, National Affairs, Fall 2018, https://www.nationalaffairs.com/publications/detail/the-constitution-of-knowledge.
  • Rauch, J., 2021, The constitution of knowledge: A defense of truth, Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press.
  • Richardson, J., Smith, A., Meaden, S., & Flip Creative, 2020, Thou shalt not commit logical fallacies, https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/.
  • Richardson, L. F., 1960, Statistics of deadly quarrels, Pittsburgh: Boxwood Press. Ridley, M., 1997, The origins of virtue: Human instincts and the evolution of cooperation, New York: Viking.
  • Ridley, M., 2010, The rational optimist: How prosperity evolves, New York: Harper-Collins.
  • Ritchie, H., 2018, Causes of death, Our World in Data, https://ourworldindata.org/causes-of-death.
  • Ritchie, S., 2015, Intelligence: All that matters, London: Hodder & Stoughton. Ropeik, D., 2010, How risky is it, really? Why our fears don’t always match the facts, New York: McGraw-Hill.
  • Rosch, E., 1978, Principles of categorization, In E. Rosch & B. B. Lloyd, eds., Cognition and categorization, Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum.
  • Rosen, J., 1996, The bloods and the crits, New Republic, Dec. 9, https://newrepublic.com/article/74070/the-bloods-and-the-crits.
  • Rosenthal, E. C., 2011, The complete idiot’s guide to game theory, New York: Penguin.
  • Roser, M., 2016, Economic growth, Our World in Data, https://ourworldindata.org/economic-growth.
  • Roser, M., Ortiz-Ospina, E., & Ritchie, H., 2013, Life expectancy, Our World in Data,https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy.
  • Roser, M., Ritchie, H., Ortiz-Ospina, E., & Hasell, J., 2020, Coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19), Our World in Data,https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus.
  • Rosling, H., 2019, Factfulness: Ten reasons we’re wrong about the world—and why things are better than you think, New York: Flatiron.
  • Roth, G. A., Abate, D., Abate, K. H., Abay, S. M., Abbafati, C., et al. 2018, Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017, The Lancet, 392, 1736–88, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32203-7.
  • Rumelhart, D. E., Hinton, G. E., & Williams, R. J., 1986, Learning representations by back-propagating errors, Nature, 323, 533–36, https://doi.org/10.1038/323533a0.
  • Rumelhart, D. E., McClelland, J. L., & PDP Research Group, 1986, Parallel distributed processing: Explorations in the microstructure of cognition, vol. 1, Foundations, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
  • Rumney, P. N. S., 2006, False allegations of rape, Cambridge Law Journal, 65, 128–58, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0008197306007069.
  • Russell, B., 1950/2009, Unpopular essays, Philadelphia: Routledge.
  • Russell, B., 1969, Letter to Mr. Major, In B. Feinberg & R. Kasrils, eds., Dear Bertrand Russell: A selection of his correspondence with the general public, 1950–1968, London: Allen & Unwin.
  • Russett, B., & Oneal, J. R., 2001, Triangulating peace: Democracy, interdependence, and international organizations, New York: W. W. Norton.
  • Sá, W. C., West, R. F., & Stanovich, K. E., 1999, The domain specificity and generality of belief bias: Searching for a generalizable critical thinking skill, Journal of Educational Psychology, 91, 497–510, https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-0663.91.3.497.
  • Saenen, L., Heyvaert, M., Van Dooren, W., Schaeken, W., & Onghena, P., 2018, Why humans fail in solving the Monty Hall dilemma: A systematic review, Psychologica Belgica, 58, 128–58, https://doi.org/10.5334/pb.274.
  • Sagan, S. D., & Suri, J., 2003, The madman nuclear alert: Secrecy, signaling, and safety in October 1969, International Security, 27, 150–83,
  • Saldin, R. P., & Teles, S. M., 2020, Never Trump: The revolt of the conservative elites, New York: Oxford University Press.
  • Salganik, M. J., Lundberg, I., Kindel, A. T., Ahearn, C. E., Al-Ghoneim, K., et al. 2020, Measuring the predictability of life outcomes with a scientific mass collaboration, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117, 8398–403, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1915006117.
  • Satel, S. 2008, When altruism isn’t enough: The case for compensating kidney donors, Washington, DC: AEI Press.
  • Savage, I., 2013, Comparing the fatality risks in United States transportation across modes and over time, Research in Transportation Economics, 43, 9–22, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.retrec.2012.12.011.
  • Savage, L. J., 1954, The foundations of statistics, New York: Wiley.
  • Schelling, T. C., 1960, The strategy of conflict, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
  • Schelling, T. C., 1984, The intimate contest for self-command, In T. C. Schelling, ed., Choice and consequence: Perspectives of an errant economist, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
  • Schneps, L., & Colmez, C. 2013, Math on trial: How numbers get used and abused in the courtroom, New York: Basic Books.
  • Scott-Phillips, T. C., Dickins, T. E., & West, S. A., 2011, Evolutionary theory and the ultimate–proximate distinction in the human behavioral sciences, Perspectives on Psychological Science, 6, 38–47, https://doi.org/10.1177/1745691610393528.
  • Scribner, S., & Cole, M., 1973, Cognitive consequences of formal and informal education, Science, 182, 553–59, https://di.org/10.1126/science.182.4112.553.
  • Seebach, L., 1994, The fixation with the last 10 percent of risk, Baltimore Sun, Apr. 13, https://www.baltimoresun.com/news/bs-xpm-1994-04-13-1994103157-story.html.
  • Selvin, S., 1975, A problem in probability, American Statistician, 29, 67, https://www.jstor.org/stable/268 689.
  • Serwer, A., 2006, The greatest money manager of our time, CNN Money, Nov. 15, https://money./magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2006/11/27/8394343/index.htm.
  • Shackel, N., 2014, Motte and bailey doctrines, https://blog.practicalethics.ox.ac.uk/2014/09/motte-and-bailey-doctrines/.
  • Sherman, C., 2019, The shark attack that changed Cape Cod forever, Boston Magazine, May 14, https://www.bostonmagazine.com/news/2019/05/14/cape-cod-sharks/.
  • Shermer, M., 1997, Why people believe weird things, New York: Freeman.
  • Shermer, M., 2008, The doping dilemma: Game theory helps to explain the pervasive abuse of drugs in cycling, baseball, and other sports, Scientific American, 298, 82–89, https://www.jstor.org/stable/26000562?seq=1.
  • Shermer, M., 2011, The believing brain: From ghosts and gods to politics and conspiracies, New York: St. Martin’s Press.
  • Shermer, M., 2015, The moral arc: How science and reason lead humanity toward truth, justice, and freedom, New York: Henry Holt.
  • Shermer, M., 2020a, COVID-19 conspiracists and their discontents, Quillette, May 7, https://quillette.com/2020/05/07/covid-19-conspiracists-and-their-discontents/.
  • Shermer, M., 2020b, The top ten weirdest things countdown, Skeptic, https://www.skeptic.com/reading_room/the-top-10-weirdest-things/.
  • Shermer, M., 2020c, Why people believe conspiracy theories, Skeptic, 25, 12–17.
  • Shtulman, A., 2017, Scienceblind: Why our intuitive theories about the world are so often wrong, New York: Basic Books.
  • Shubik, M., 1971, The dollar auction game: A paradox in noncooperative behavior and escalation, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 15, 109–11, https://doi.org/10.1177/002200277101500111.
  • Simanek, D., 1999, Horse’s teeth, https://www.lockhaven.edu/~dsimanek/horse.htm.
  • Simmons, J. P., Nelson, L. D., & Simonsohn, U., 2011, False-positive psychology: Undisclosed flexibility in data collection and analysis allows presenting anything as significant, Psychological Science, 22, 1359–66, https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797611417632.
  • Simon, H. A., 1956, Rational choice and the structure of the environment, Psychological Review, 63, 129–38, https://doi.org/10.1037/h0042769.
  • Singer, P., 1981/2011, The expanding circle: Ethics and sociobiology, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
  • Sloman, S. A., 1996, The empirical case for two systems of reasoning, Psychological Bulletin, 119, 3–22, https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-2909.119.1.3.
  • Sloman, S. A., & Fernbach, P., 2017, The knowledge illusion: Why we never think alone, New York: Penguin.
  • Slovic, P., 1987, Perception of risk, Science, 236, 280–85, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.3563507.
  • Slovic, P., 2007, “If I look at the mass I will never act”: Psychic numbing and genocide, Judgment and Decision Making, 2, 79–95, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-8647-1_3.
  • Slovic, P., & Tversky, A., 1974, Who accepts Savage’s axiom? Behavioral Science, 19, 368–73, https://doi.org/10.1002/bs.3830190603.
  • Soave, R., 2014, Ezra Klein “completely supports” “terrible” Yes Means Yes law, Reason, Oct. 13, https://reason.com/2014/10/13/ezra-klein-completely-supports-terrible/.
  • Social Progress Imperative, 2020, 2020 Social Progress Index, https://www.socialprogress.org/.
  • Sowell, T., 1987, A conflict of visions: Ideological origins of political struggles, New York: Quill.
  • Sowell, T., 1995, The vision of the anointed: Self-congratulation as a basis for social policy, New York: Basic Books.
  • Sperber, D., 1997, Intuitive and reflective beliefs, Mind & Language, 12, 67–83, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0017.1997.tb00062.x.
  • Sperber, D., Cara, F., & Girotto, V., 1995, Relevance theory explains the selection task, Cognition, 57, 31–95, https://doi.org/10.1016/0010-0277(95)00666-M.
  • Spinoza, B., 1677/2000, Ethics (G. H. R. Parkinson, trans.), New York: Oxford University Press.
  • Stango, V., & Zinman, J., 2009, Exponential growth bias and household finance, Journal of Finance, 64, 2807–49, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2009.01518.x.
  • Stanovich, K. E., 2012, On the distinction between rationality and intelligence: Implications for understanding individual differences in reasoning, In K. J. Holyoak & R. G. Morrison, eds., The Oxford Handbook of Thinking and Reasoning, New York: Oxford University Press.
  • Stanovich, K. E., 2018, How to think rationally about world problems, Journal of Intelligence, 6(2), https://doi.org/10.3390/jintelligence6020025
  • Stanovich, K. E., 2020, The bias that divides us, Quillette, Sept. 26, https://quillette.com/2020/09/26/the-bias-that-divides-us/.
  • Stanovich, K. E., 2021, The bias that divides us: The science and politics of myside thinking, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
  • Stanovich, K. E., & Toplak, M. E., 2019, The need for intellectual diversity in psychological science: Our own studies of actively open-minded thinking as a case study, Cognition, 187, 156–66, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cognition.2019.03.006.
  • Stanovich, K. E., & West, R. F., 1998, Cognitive ability and variation in selection task performance, Thinking and Reasoning, 4, 193–230.
  • Stanovich, K. E., West, R. F., & Toplak, M. E., 2016, The rationality quotient: Toward a test of rational thinking, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
  • Statista Research Department, 2019, Beliefs and conspiracy theories in the U.S.—Statistics & Facts, Aug., 13. https://www.statista.com/topics/5103/beliefs-and-superstition-in-the-us/#dossierSummary__chapter5.
  • Stenger, V. J., 1990, Physics and psychics: The search for a world beyond the senses, Buffalo, NY: Prometheus.
  • Stevenson, B., & Wolfers, J., 2008, Economic growth and subjective well-being: Reassessing the Easterlin Paradox, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1–87, https://doi.org/10.3386/w4282.
  • Stoppard, T., 1972, Jumpers: A play, New York: Grove Press.
  • Stuart, E. A., 2010, Matching methods for causal inference: A review and a look forward, Statistical Science, 25, 1–21, https://doi.org/10.1214/09-STS313.
  • Suits, B., 1978/2014, The grasshopper: Games, life, and utopia (3rd ed.), Peterborough, Ont.: Broadview Press.
  • Sunstein, C. R., & Vermeule, A., 2008, Conspiracy theories, John M. Olin Program in Law and Economics Working Papers, 387, https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1084585.
  • Swets, J. A., Dawes, R. M., & Monahan, J., 2000, Better decisions through science, Scientific American, 283, 82–87.
  • Sydnor, J., 2010, (Over)insuring modest risks, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 2, 177–99, https://doi.org/10.1257/app.2.4.177.
  • Sykes, C. J., 2017, How the right lost its mind, New York: St. Martin’s Press, Taber, C. S., & Lodge, M., 2006, Motivated skepticism in the evaluation of political beliefs, American Journal of Political Science, 50, 755–69, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2006.00214.x.
  • Talwalkar, P., 2013, The taxi-cab problem, Mind Your Decisions, Sept. 5, https://mindyourdecisions.com/blog/2013/09/05/the-taxi-cab-problem/.
  • Tate, J., Jenkins, J., Rich, S., Muyskens, J., Fox, J., et al. 2020, Fatal force, https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/investigations/police-shootings-database/, retrieved Oct. 14, 2020.
  • Temple, N., 2015, The possible importance of income and education as covariates in cohort studies that investigate the relationship between diet and disease, F1000Research, 4, 690, https://doi.org/10.12688/f1000research.6929.2.
  • Terry, Q. C., 2008, Golden Rules and Silver Rules of humanity: Universal wisdom of civilization, Berkeley, CA: AuthorHouse.
  • Tetlock, P. E., 1994, Political psychology or politicized psychology: Is the road to scientific hell paved with good moral intentions? Political Psychology, 15, 509–29, https://doi.org/10.2307/3791569.
  • Tetlock, P. E., 2002, Social functionalist frameworks for judgment and choice: Intuitive politicians, theologians, and prosecutors, Psychological Review, 109, 451–71, https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-295X.109.3.451.
  • Tetlock, P. E., 2003, Thinking the unthinkable: Sacred values and taboo cognitions, Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 7, 320–24, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1364-6613(03)00135-9.
  • Tetlock, P. E., 2009, Expert political judgment: How good is it? How can we know? Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
  • Tetlock, P. E., 2015, All it takes to improve forecasting is keep score, Paper presented at the Seminars about Long-Term Thinking, San Francisco, Nov. 23.
  • Tetlock, P. E., & Gardner, D., 2015, Superforecasting: The art and science of prediction, New York: Crown.
  • Tetlock, P. E., Kristel, O. V., Elson, S. B., Green, M. C., & Lerner, J. S., 2000, The psychology of the unthinkable: Taboo trade-offs, forbidden base rates, and heretical counterfactuals, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 78, 853–70, https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.78.5.853.
  • Thaler, R. H., & Sunstein, C. R., 2008, Nudge: Improving decisions about health, wealth, and happiness, New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
  • Thomas, K. A., De Freitas, J., DeScioli, P., & Pinker, S., 2016, Recursive mentalizing and common knowledge in the bystander effect, Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 145, 621–29, https://doi.org/10.1037/xge0000153.
  • Thomas, K. A., DeScioli, P., Haque, O. S., & Pinker, S., 2014, The psychology of coordination and common knowledge, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 107, 657–76, https://doi.org/10.1037/a0037037.
  • Thompson, C., 2020, QAnon is like a game—a most dangerous game, WIRED Magazine, Sept. 22. https://www.wired.com/story/qanon-most-dangerous-multiplatform-game/.
  • Thompson, D. A., & Adams, S. L., 1996, The full moon and ED patient volumes: Unearthing a myth, American Journal of Emergency Medicine, 14, 161–64, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0735-6757(96)90124-2.
  • Tierney, J., 1991, Behind Monty Hall’s doors: Puzzle, debate, and answer, New York Times, July 21, https://www.nytimes.com/1991/07/21/us/behind-monty-hall-s-doors-puzzle-debate-and-answer.html.
  • Tierney, J., & Baumeister, R. F., 2019, The power of bad: How the negativity effect rules us and how we can rule it, New York: Penguin.
  • Todd, B., 2017, Introducing longtermism, https://80000hours.org/articles/future-generations/.
  • Tollefson, J., 2020, How Trump damaged science—and why it could take decades to recover, Nature, 586, 190–94, Oct. 5, https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02800-9.
  • Toma, M., 2020, Gen Ed 1066 decision-making competence survey. Harvard University.
  • Tooby, J., & Cosmides, L., 1993, Ecological rationality and the multimodular mind: Grounding normative theories in adaptive problems, In K. I. Manktelow & D. E. Over, eds., Rationality: Psychological and philosophical perspectives, London: Routledge.
  • Tooby, J., Cosmides, L., & Price, M. E., 2006, Cognitive adaptations for n-person exchange: The evolutionary roots of organizational behavior, Managerial and Decision Economics, 27, 103–29, https://doi.org/10.1002/mde.1287.
  • Tooby, J., & DeVore, I., 1987, The reconstruction of hominid behavioral evolution through strategic modeling, In W. G. Kinzey, ed., The evolution of human behavior: Primate models, Albany: SUNY Press.
  • Toplak, M. E., West, R. F., & Stanovich, K. E., 2017, Real-world correlates of performance on heuristics and biases tasks in a community sample, Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 30, 541–54, https://doi.org/10.1002/bdm.1973.
  • Trivers, R. L., 1971, The evolution of reciprocal altruism, Quarterly Review of Biology, 46, 35–57, https://do.org/10.1086/406755.
  • Tversky, A., 1969, Intransitivity of preferences, Psychological Review, 76, 31–48, https://doi.org/10.1037/h026750.
  • Tversky, A., 1972, Elimination by aspects: A theory of choice, Psychological Review, 79, 281–99, https://doi.org/10.1037/h0032955.
  • Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D., 1971, Belief in the law of small numbers. Psychological Bulletin, 76, 105–10, https://doi.org/10.1037/h0031322.
  • Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D., 1973, Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability, Cognitive Psychology, 5, 207–32, https://doi.org/10.1016/0010-0285(73)90033-9.
  • Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D., 1974, Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases, Science, 185, 1124–31, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.185.4157.1124.
  • Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D., 1981, The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice, Science, 211, 453–58, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.7455683.
  • Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D., 1982, Evidential impact of base rates, In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky, eds., Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases, New York: Cambridge University Press.
  • Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D., 1983, Extensions versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment, Psychological Review, 90, 293–315.
  • Twain, M., 1897/1989, Following the equator, New York: Dover.
  • Uscinski, J. E., & Parent, J. M., 2014, American conspiracy theories, New York: Oxford University Press.
  • Vaci, N., Edelsbrunner, P., Stern, E., Neubauer, A., Bilalić, M., et al. 2019, The joint influence of intelligence and practice on skill development throughout the life span, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116, 18363–69, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1819086116.
  • van Benthem, J., 2008, Logic and reasoning: Do the facts matter? Studia Logica, 88, 67–84, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11225-008-9101-1.
  • Van Prooijen, J.-W., & van Vugt, M., 2018, Conspiracy theories: Evolved functions and psychological mechanisms, Perspectives on Psychological Science, 13, 770–88, https://doi.org/10.1177/1745691618774270.
  • VanderWeele, T. J, 2014, Commentary: Resolutions of the birthweight paradox: competing explanations and analytical insights, International Journal of Epidemiology, 43, 1368–73, https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyu162.
  • Varian, H., 2006, Recalculating the costs of global climate change, New York Times, Dec. 14, https://www.nytimes.com/2006/12/14/business/14scene.html.
  • Vazsonyi, A., 1999, Which door has the Cadillac? Decision Line, 17–19, https://web.archive.org/web/20140413131827/, http://www.decisionsciences.org/DecisionLine/Vol30/30_1/vazs30_1.pdf.
  • Venkataraman, B., 2019, The optimist’s telescope: Thinking ahead in a reckless age, New York: Riverhead Books.
  • Von Neumann, J., & Morgenstern, O., 1953/2007, Theory of games and economic behavior (60th anniversary commemo ative ed.), Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
  • Vos Savant, M., 1990, Game show problem, Parade, Sept. 9, https://web.archive.org/web/20130121183432/http://marilynvossavant.com/game-show-problem/.
  • Vosoughi, S., Roy, D., & Aral, S., 2018, The spread of true and false news online, Science, 359, 1146–51, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aap9559.
  • Wagenaar, W. A., & Sagaria, S. D., 1975, Misperception of exponential growth, Perception & Psychophysics, 18, 416–22, https://doi.org/10.3758/BF03204114.
  • Wagenaar, W. A., & Timmers, H., 1979, The pond-and-duckweed problem: Three experiments on the misperception of exponential growth, Acta Psychologica, 43, 239–51, https://doi.org/10.1016/0001-6918(79)90028-3.
  • Walker, C., Petulla, S., Fowler, K., Mier, A., Lou, M., et al. 2019, 10 years, 180 school shootings, 356 victims, CNN, July 24, https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2019/07/us/ten-years-of-school-shootings-trnd/.
  • Wan, W., & Shammas, B, 2020, Why Americans are numb to the staggering coronavirus death toll, Washington Post, Dec. 21, https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/12/21/covid-why-we-ignore-deaths/.
  • Warburton, N., 2007, Thinking from A to Z (3rd ed.), New York: Routledge. Wason, P. C., 1966, Reasoning, In B. M. Foss, ed., New horizons in psychology, London: Penguin.
  • Weber, M., 1922/2019, Economy and society: A new translation (K. Tribe, trans.), Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
  • Weissman, M. B., 2020, Do GRE scores help predict getting a physics Ph.D.? A comment on a paper by Miller et al. Science Advances, 6, eaax3787, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aax3787.
  • Welzel, C., 2013, Freedom rising: Human empowerment and the quest for emancipation, New York: Cambridge University Press.
  • Wilkinson, W., 2019, The density divide: Urbanization, polarization, and populist backlash, Washington, DC: Niskanen Center, https://www.niskanencenter.org/the-density-divide-urbanization-polarization-and-populist-backlash/.
  • Williams, D., 2020, Motivated ignorance, rationality, and democratic politics, Synthese, 1–21.
  • Willingham, D. T., 2007, Critical thinking: Why is it so hard to teach? American Educator, 31, 8–19, https://doi.org/10.3200/AEPR.109.4.21-32.
  • Wittgenstein, L., 1953, Philosophical investigations, New York: Macmillan.
  • Wolfe, D., & Dale, D., 2020, “It’s going to disappear”: A timeline of Trump’s claims that Covid-19 will vanish, Oct. 31, https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/10/politics/covid-disappearing-trump-comment-tracker/.
  • Wolfe, J. M., Kluender, K. R., Levi, D. M., Bartoshuk, L. M., Herz, R. S., et al. 2020, Sensation & perception (6th ed.), Sunderland, MA: Sinauer.
  • Wollstonecraft, M., 1792/1995, A Vindication of the rights of woman: With strictures on political and moral subjects, New York: Cambridge University Press.
  • Wood, T., & Porter, E., 2019, The elusive backfire effect: Mass attitudes’ stead-fast factual adherence. Political Behavior, 41, 135–63. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-018-9443-y.
  • Yang, A., 2020, The official website for the Yang 2020 campaign, www.yang 2020.com.
  • Yglesias, M., 2020a, Defund police is a bad idea, not a bad slogan, Slow Boring, Dec. 7, https://www.slowboring.com/p/defund-police-is-a-bad-idea-not-a.
  • Yglesias, M., 2020b, The End of Policing left me convinced we still need policing, Vox, June 18, https://www.vox.com/2020/6/18/21293784/alex-vitale-end-of-policing-review.
  • Young, C., 2014a, The argument against affirmative consent laws gets Voxjacked, Reason, Oct. 15, https://reason.com/2014/10/15/the-argument-against-affirmative-consent/.
  • Young, C., 2014b, Crying rape, Slate, Sept. 18, https://slate.com/human-interest/2014/09/false-rape-accusations-why-must-we-pretend-they-never-happen.html.
  • Zelizer, V. A., 2005, The purchase of intimacy, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
  • Ziman, J. M., 1978, Reliable knowledge: An exploration of the grounds for belief in science, New York: Cambridge University Press.
الرجوع إلى الصفحة الرئيسية للكتاب

جميع الحقوق محفوظة لمؤسسة هنداوي © ٢٠٢٤