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ملاحظات

مقدمة

(1)
See Morland, Paul, The Human Tide: How Population Shaped the Modern World, London, John Murray, 2019.
(2)
Livi-Bacci, Massimo, The Population of Europe, Oxford, Blackwell, 2000, p. 120.
(3)
Livi-Bacci, Massimo, A Concise History of World Population, Chichester, Wiley-Blackwell, 2012, pp. 41–3.
(4)
For a discussion of how uneconomic and impractical it was to transport food as late as the eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries, see Blanning, Tim, The Pursuit of Glory: Europe 1648–1815, New York, Viking, 2007, pp. 3–34.
(5)
Wilson, Peter H., Europe’s Tragedy: A New History of the Thirty Years War, London, Penguin, 2010, p. 787; Lee, Harry F. and Zhang, David D., “A Tale of Two Population Crises in Recent Chinese History”, Climatic Change, 116, 2013, pp. 285–308.
(6)
This overlooks the Renaissance, which can be seen as spanning the medieval and modern. These periodizations are inherently imperfect and open to challenge.
(7)
Later editions of Malthus’s Essay allowed for a greater tendency of people in some places and at some times to hold back their numbers below the maximum which resources could allow and thereby to improve their standard of living beyond subsistence.
(8)
For a masterly historiography of demographic transition theory, see Kirk, Dudley, “Demographic Transition Theory”, Population Studies, 50 (3), 1996, pp. 361–87.
(9)
For a discussion of the relative impact of economics, culture, institutions and other factors in driving the demographic transition see Kirk, op. cit., passim.
(10)
These demographic data, like all those in this book which are not end-noted, come from the United Nations Population Division. The income data are from the World Bank – GNI Atlas Method: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GNP.PCAP.CD?view=chart (impression: 30 September 2020). The literacy data are also from the World Bank: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SE.ADT.LITR.FE.ZS?locations=MA (impression: 30 September 2020).
(11)
I have quantified this by correlating GPD per capita with fertility, life expectancy and infant mortality in 1970 and 2019 for more than one hundred countries for which the relevant data is available. I have found that the correlation between income and each of these
demographic measures (a positive correlation for the first two, a negative one for the third) weakened between these two dates. The correlation between GDP per capita and fertility has weakened significantly more than that between life expectancy or (negatively) infant mortality.
And the correlation in 2019 is much weaker for richer countries than for poor ones.
(12)
Most notably Gordon, Robert, The Rise and Fall of American Growth: The U.S. Standard of Living Since the Civil War, Princeton, New Jersey, Princeton University Press, 2016.
(13)
Kaa, D. J., van de, Europe’s Second Demographic Transition, Washington DC, Population Reference Bureau, 1987; Lesthaeghe, R., The Second Demographic Transition in Western Countries: An Interpretation, Brussels, Interuniversity Programme in Demography, 1991; Lesthaeghe, R., “The Unfolding Story of the Second Demographic Transition”, Population and Development Review, 36 (2), 2010, pp. 211–51; see also Ariès, Philippe, “Two Successive Motivations for the Declining Birth Rate in the West”, Population and Development Review, 6 (4), 1980, pp. 645–50.
(14)
Kaa, Dirk J. van de, “Europe’s Second Demographic Transition”, Population Reference Bureau, 42 (1), 1987, p. 46.
(15)
Lesthaeghe, R., “The Second Demographic Transition: A Concise Overview of its Development”, PNAS, 111 (51), 2014.
(16)
For a fuller discussion of this, see Morland, op. cit., pp. 29–33, 283–90.
(17)
Drixler, Fay, Infanticide and Population Growth in Eastern Japan 1660–1950, Berkeley, University of California Press, 2013, pp. 18–19, 33, 124.
(18)
United Nations Population Division: https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/ (impression: 2 October 2020).

الفصل الأول: وفيات الرضع

(1)
World Bank: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.IMRT.IN?locations=PE (impression: 19 July 2021).
(3)
World Bank: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.IMRT.IN?locations=PE (impression: 27 July 2020).
(4)
World Bank: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SE.SEC.ENRR.FE?locations=PE (impression: 6 March 2019).
(5)
Kiross, Girmay Tsegay et al., “The Effect of Maternal Education on Infant Mortality in Ethiopia: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis”, PLoS One, 14 (7) 2019.
(6)
Case, Anne and Deaton, Angus, Deaths of Despair and the Future of Capitalism, Princeton and Oxford, Princeton University Press, 2020, pp. 57, 59, 66, 75–7.
(8)
Minello, Alessandra, Dalla-Zuanna, Gianpiero and Alfani, Guido, “First Signs of Transition: The Parallel Decline of Early Baptism and Early Mortality in the Province of Padua (north-eastern Italy), 1816–1870”, Demographic Research, 36 (1), 2017, p. 761. Note that while the matching trends are clear, the authors are open to different interpretations of the data.
(9)
Henry’s last wife, Catherine Parr, had one child by her fourth husband after Henry VIII’s death. This child died around the age of two.
(10)
It is true that there is a counter-tendency to embrace death. Bach’s exceptionally beautiful Cantata BWV 82 commences with a lament, “Ich habe genug” (I have had enough), and ends with “Ich freue mich auf meinen Tod” (I rejoice in my death). And apart from artists, mystical pietists and the odd psychopath, there have always been individuals who for one reason or other have embraced or even precipitated their own death such as those seeking glory, martyrdom and the possibility of eternity. A fervent belief in a better afterlife or in reincarnation may reduce the desire to stay alive. But had such cases not been exceptional, the human race could hardly have survived and thrived. The will to life is generally the stronger emotion.
(11)
I thought the use of this analogy was original. I then read it in Case and Deaton, op. cit., p. 22.
(12)
Alberts, Susan C., “Social Influences on Survival and Reproduction: Insights from a Long-Term Study of Wild Baboons”, Journal of Animal Ecology, 23 July 2018, p. 50: https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1365-2656.12887 (impression: 15th November 2019).
(14)
Bricker, Darrell and Ibbitson, John, Empty Planet: The Shock of Population Decline, New York, Crown, 2019, p. 68.
(16)
Center for Disease and Control and Prevention: www.cdc.gov/reproductivehealth/maternalinfanthealth/infantmortality.htm (impression: 27 July 2020).
(17)
Department of Health and Human Services: https://minorityhealth.hhs.gov/omh/browse.aspx?lvl=4&lvlid=68 (impression: 27 July 2020).
(19)
Center for Diseases Control and Prevention: www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/sosmap/infant_mortality_rates/infant_mortality.htm (impression: 27 July 2020).
(24)
Guardian, 6 December 2019: www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2019/dec/06/record-number-of-over-45s-giving-birth-in-england (impression: 23 November 2020).
(26)
Cato Institute, 3 April 2019: https://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/human-progress-saved-baby-will-save-many-more (impression: 27 July 2020).
(27)
Ibid.
(28)
Agence France Press, 10 February 2014: www.pri.org/stories/2014–02–10/pakistan-where-conspiracy-theories-can-cost-childs-life (impression: 7 July 2020).
(30)
Ntedna, Peter Austin Morten and Tiruneh, Fentanesh Nibret, “Factors Associated with Infant Mortality in Malawi”, Journal of Experimental and Clinical Medicine, 6 (4), August 2014, pp. 125–9: www.researchgate.net/publication/263812940_Factors_Associated_with_Infant_Mortality_in_Malawi (impression: 13 December 2019).
(31)
Full Fact: https://fullfact.org/health/how-many-people-die-fires/ (impression: 13 December 2020).
(32)
Interview with Michael Rosato, CEO of Women and Children First, 12 December 2019, London.
(33)
Ibid.
(34)
Guardian, 19 September 2019: https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2019/sep/19/number-women-dying-childbirth-off-track (impression: 22 January 2019).
(36)
World Bank: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.STA.MMRT?locations=LK (impression: 27 July 2020).
(37)
Data 1990–2013. Regions halving or more in this period include Northern Africa and East Asia. Trends in Maternal Mortality 1990-2013 WHO et al, p. 25: http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/112682/9789241507226_eng.pdf;jsessionid=C8C8E09C1B10F77323BE5B0C992A4250?sequence=2 (impression: 21 October 2021).
(38)
Prost, Audrey et al., “Women’s Groups Practicing Participatory Learning and Action to Improve Maternal and New Born Health in Maternal Settings: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis”, The Lancet, 2013, 381, 1736–46.
(39)
UNICEF: data.unicef.org/topic/maternal-health/maternal-mortality/ (impression: 27 June 2020); Guardian, 30 January 2017: www.theguardian.com/global-development/2017/jan/30/maternal-death-rates-in-afghanistan-may-be-worse-than-previously-thought#img-1 (impression: 12 October 2019). Note, however, that other sources put it lower e.g. the World Bank: data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.STA.MMRT?locations=AF (impression: 19 July 2021).
(40)
Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine, November 1999: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1633559/ (impression: 4 February 2019 ); World Bank, op. cit.
(41)
Other data puts the rate higher, at more than twenty-six deaths per hundred thousand pregnant women, but this is taking account of deaths in pregnancy rather than after birthing: www.health.harvard.edu/blog/a-soaring-maternal-mortality-rate-what-does-it-mean-for-you-2018101614914 (impression: 9 September 2020).
(43)
New York Times, 7 May 2019: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/07/health/pregnancy-deaths-.html (impression: 13 December 2019).
(44)
Centers for Disease and Control Prevention: https://www.cdc.gov/vitalsigns/maternal-deaths/index.html (impression: 13 December 2019).

الفصل الثاني: النمو السكاني

(1)
The UN median forecast for Africa as a whole is somewhat higher, for sub-Saharan Africa somewhat lower. In general, unless otherwise stated, the data mentioned in this chapter for Africa is for sub-Saharan Africa only.
(2)
Financial Times, 17 November 29016: www.ft.com/content/8411d970-7b44-11e6-ae24-f193b105145e (impression: 21 August 2019).
(3)
Ibid.
(4)
Africa Times, 27 November 2019: https://africatimes.com/2019/11/27/iom-climate-change-a-clear-driver-of-african-migration/ (impression: 29 November 2019).
(5)
Climate Home News, 16 May 2019: www.climatechangenews.com/2019/05/16/lake-chad-not-shrinking-climate-fuelling-terror-groups-report/ (impression: 29 November 2019); BBC 27 September 2018: www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-45599262 (impression: 29 November). Guardian, 22 October 2019: www.theguardian.com/global-development/2019/oct/22/lake-chad-shrinking-story-masks-serious-failures-of-governance (impression: 24 January 2019).
(6)
The accuracy of this statement will depend on how soon after its being written it is read, as is the case with all fast-changing phenomena. By mid-century, the UN’s median forecast is that Niger’s population will be as large as the UK’s is today.
(7)
Euronews, 31 October 2019: https://www.euronews.com/2019/10/31/being-a-malnourished-child-in-niger-two-stories (impression: 29 November 2019).
(8)
Segal, Ronald, Islam’s Black Slaves: The History of Africa’s Other Diaspora, London, Atlantic Books, 2001, pp. 56–7.
(9)
Elton, J. Frederic, Travels and Researches among the Lakes and Mountains of Eastern and Central Africa, London, John Murray, 1879, p. 23.
(10)
Deutscher, Guy, Through the Language Glass: How Words Colour Your World, London, William Heinemann, 2010, p. 164.
(11)
Darwin, Charles, The Descent of Man and Selection in Relation to Sex, New York, D. Appleton and Company, 1871, p. 193.
(12)
Horsman, Reginald, Race and Manifest Destiny: The Origins of American Racial Anglo-Saxonism, Cambridge MA and London, Harvard University Press, 1981, pp. 243–4.
(13)
Washington Spectator, 2 November 2019: https://washingtonspectator.org/italy-and-beyond/ (impression: 1 December 2019).
(14)
BBC News, 14 November 2019: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/stories-50391297 (impression: 1 December 2019).
(15)
Smith, Stephen, The Scramble for Europe: Young Africa on its Way to the Old Continent, Polity, Cambridge, 2019, p. 159.
(16)
Collier, Paul, Exodus: Immigration and Multiculturalism in the 21st Century, Penguin, London, 2014, pp. 41–3.
(17)
Reuters, 15 August 2020, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-migrants-minister-idUSKCN25B0SO (impression: 22 October 2021).
(18)
Mail & Guardian, http://atavist.mg.co.za/ghana-must-go-the-ugly-history-of-africas-most-famous-bag (impression: 24 January 2019).
(19)
All Africa, 28 February 2018: https://allafrica.com/stories/201803010011.html (impression: 24 January 2018).
(20)
Migration Data Portal https://www.migrationdataportal.org/regional-data-overview/southern-africa (impression: 21 October 2021).
(22)
Quartz, 28 March 2019: https://qz.com/africa/1582771/african-migrants-more-likely-to-move-in-africa-not-us-europe/ (impression: 24 January 2019).
(23)
Fukuyama, Francis, Political Order and Political Decay, Profile, London, 2014, pp. 25–7.
(24)
Vollset, Stein Emil et al., “Fertility, Mortality, Migration and Population Scenarios for 195 Countries and Territories: A Forecasting Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study”, The Lancet, 14 July 2014.
(25)
Kaufman, Carol E., “Contraceptive Use in South Africa Under Apartheid”, Demography, 35 (4), 1998, pp. 421–34.
(26)
All Africa, 21 November 2019: https://allafrica.com/stories/201911270852.html (impression: 6 December 2019).
(30)
Livi-Bacci, Massimo, The Population of Europe, Oxford, Blackwell, 1999, p. 165.
(33)
AAAS Science Magazine, 24 July 2017: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/07/swaziland-makes-major-strides-against-its-aids-epidemic (impression: 8 December 2019).
(34)
Center for Disease Control and Prevention: 2014–2016 Ebola Outbreak in West Africa: https://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/history/2014-2016-outbreak/index.html (impression: 15 December 2019).
(35)
World Bank: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD (impression: 20 March 2020).
(36)
Financial Times, 22 November 2019: https://www.ft.com/content/69f907ce-e127-11e9-b8e0-026e07cbe5b4 (impression: 15 December 2019).
(37)
Whether Europe’s wars really have been about resources is of course highly debatable. The Lenin/Imperialism view of World War One is that they were – but that view has largely been discredited. Nevertheless, the desire for territory, whether Britain versus Germany in the colonies or Austrian ambitions against Russian clients in the Balkans, was often not just about glory or self-aggrandisement or power but also about taxable and extractable resources. The Franco-German bitterness over Alsace-Lorraine for example was intensified because of the significant iron deposits to be found there.

الفصل الثالث: التحضر

(1)
United Nations, The World’s Cities in 2018: https://www.un.org/en/events/citiesday/assets/pdf/the_worlds_cities_in_2018_data_booklet.pdf (impression: 23 October 2020). This includes Hong Kong but not the cities of Taiwan.
(4)
World Population Review: https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/cities/india (impression: 19 August 2020).
(5)
Luxembourg – A Small but Open Society: https://luxembourg.public.lu/en/society-and-culture/population/demographics.html (impression: 19 August 2020).
(6)
Childe, V. Gordon, “The Urban Revolution”, Town Planning Review, 21 (1) 1950, pp. 3–17.
(7)
China Today, 2 November 2018 http://www.chinatoday.com.cn/ctenglish/2018/tourism/201811/t20181102_800146032.html (impression: 21 October 2021).
(10)
World Population Review: http://worldpopulationreview.com/world-cities/chongqing-population/ (impression: 2 February 2020).
(11)
Knoema: https://knoema.com/atlas/China/Urban-population (impression: 19 August 2020).
(12)
Statistica.com: www.statista.com/statistics/289158/telephone-presence-in-households-in-the-uk/ (impression: 14 February 2020).
(13)
Crosby, Alfred W., The Measure of Reality: Quantification and Western Society, 1250–1600, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1997, p. 129.
(14)
Evans, Richard J., The Pursuit of Power: Europe 1815–1914, London, Allen Lane, 2016, p. 8.
(15)
Shan, Weijian, Out of the Gobi: My Story of China and America, Hoboken, New Jersey, Wiley, 2019, p. 135.
(16)
Twine, Kevin, “The City in Decline: Rome in Late Antiquity”, Middle States Geographer, 25, 1992, p. 136.
(17)
Marsden, Peter and West, Barbara, “Population Change in Roman London”, Britannia, 23, 1992, pp. 133–40.
(18)
Davis, Kingsley, “The Urbanization of the Human Population”, in LeGates, Richard T. and Stout, Frederic, eds., The City Reader, London and New York, Routledge, 2016, p. 481.
(19)
Morland, Paul, The Human Tide: How Population Shaped the Modern World, London, John Murray, 2020.
(20)
Again, a lot depends on precisely how you define urban, which requires both a determination of the minimum the size of a qualifying conurbation and the conurbation’s boundaries.
(21)
Financial Times, 24 March 2020: https://www.ft.com/content/1df725c0-6adb-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3 (impression: 24 March 2020).
(22)
Guardian, 23 March 2009: www.theguardian.com/environment/2009/mar/23/city-dwellers-smaller-carbon-footprints (impression: 16 February 2020).
(23)
Live Science, 19 April 2011: https://www.livescience.com/13772-city-slicker-country-bumpkin-smaller-carbon-footprint.html (impression: 16 February 2020).
(24)
US Energy Information Administration https://www.eia.gov/environment/emissions/state/analysis/ (impression: 21 October 2021).
(25)
Peter Calthorpe cited in Brand, Stewart, Whole Earth Discipline: An Ecopragmatist Manifesto, London, Atlantic Books, 2010, p. 67.
(26)
Ibid., p. 68.
(27)
Smil, Vaclav, Growth: From Microorganisms to Megacities, Cambridge, Mass. and London, MIT, 2019, p. 343.
(29)
Flyn, Cal, Islands of Abandonment, London, William Collins, 2021, pp. 53, 59.
(30)
Wired, 14 February 2018: https://www.wired.co.uk/article/tfl-finances-transport-for-london-deficit-passenger-numbers (impression: 14 February 2020).
(31)
Carter, Mike, “Stranded in Paradise: A Spring Awakening amid the Welsh Hills”, Financial Times, 5 May 2020: https://www.ft.com/content/f095f452-8309-11ea-b6e9-a94cffd1d9bf (impression: 18 August 2020).
(32)
GLA Intelligence 2015: https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/population-change-1939-2015 (impression: 2 February 2020).
(34)
Smith, P. D., City: A Guidebook for the Urban Age, London, Berlin, Sydney and New York, 2012, p. 312.
(35)
World Bank: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.RUR.TOTL.ZS?locations=ZG (impression: 2 February 2020).
(36)
World Population Review, 17 February 2020: https://worldpopulationreview.com/world-cities/lagos-population/ (impression: 22 March 2020).
(37)
McDougall, Robert and Kristiansen, Paul and Rader, Romina, “Small scale agriculture results in high yields but requires judicious management of inputs to achieve sustainability”, PNAS, 116 (1), 2019, pp. 129–34.
(40)
Davis, op. cit., p. 5.
(41)
Smith, op. cit., p. 312.
(42)
Financial Times, 23 March 2020: https://www.ft.com/content/1df725c0-6adb-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3 (impression: 23 March 2020).
(43)
Davis, op. cit., p. 5.

الفصل الرابع: الخصوبة

(1)
Five Stars and a Moon, 8 January 2016 www.fivestarsandamoon.com/2016/01/why-you-shouldnt-have-kids-in-singapore/ (impression: 29 January 2019).
(2)
Bricker, Darrell and Ibbitson, John, Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline, London, Robinson, 2019.
(3)
Levin, Hagai et al., “Temporal Trends in Sperm Count: A Systematic Review and Meta-Regression Analysis”, Human Reproduction Update, 23 (6), 2017, pp. 646–59.
(5)
Government of Singapore https://www.singstat.gov.sg/modules/infographics/total-fertility-rate (impression: 22 October 2021); Mothership: https://mothership.sg/2018/04/singapore-total-fertility-rate-official/ (impression: 13 December 2018).
(6)
Morland, Paul, The Human Tide: How Population Shaped the Modern World, London, John Murray, 2019, pp. 90, 93.
(7)
Yap, Mui Teng, “Fertility and Population Policy: the Singaporean Experience”, Journal of Population and Social Security Population, (1) Suppl., 2003, p. 646.
(8)
Ibid., p. 651.
(9)
Ibid., p. 652.
(10)
Straits Times, 28 September 2018: https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/spores-fertility-rate-down-as-number-of-singles-goes-up (impression: 29 March 2019).
(11)
Straits Times, 26 September 2016: https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/fewer-sporean-babies-born-out-of-wedlock (impression: 29 March 2019), Yale Global Online: https://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/out-wedlock-births-rise-worldwide (impression: 29 March 2019).
(12)
French, Marilyn, The Women’s Room, London, André Deutsch, 1978, p. 47.
(13)
Bongaarts, John and Sobatka, Tomáš, “A Demographic Explanation for the Recent Rise in European Fertility”, Population and Development Review, 30 (1), 2012, pp. 83–120; The Austrian Academy of Sciences 2008: www.oeaw.ac.at/en/vid/data/demographic-data-sheets/european-demographic-data-sheet-2008/tempo-effect-and-adjusted-tfr/ (impression: 10 April 2019).
(14)
Morland, Paul, UnHerd, 17 October 2019: https://unherd.com/2019/10/has-hungary-conceived-a-baby-boom/ (impression: 16 October 2019).
(15)
Morland, Paul, The Human Tide: How Population Shaped the Modern World, London, John Murray, 2019, pp. 166–73.
(16)
Lieven, Dominic, Towards the Flame: Empire, War and the End of Tsarist Russia, London, Allen Lane, 2015, p. 60.
(17)
Financial Times, 12 March 2019: https://www.ft.com/content/f34bb0b0-2f8b-11e9-8744-e7016697f225 (impression: 3 April 2019).
(18)
UN Population Division: Data is for 2010–2015 period.
(19)
Financial Times, 24 August 2020: https://www.ft.com/content/c1bd20d6-f019-40ba-9ee7-b23e6150bf6c (impression: 24 August 2020).
(20)
Population Reference Bureau: https://interactives.prb.org/2021-wpds/asia/#east-asia (impression: 3 September 2021).
(22)
Next Door Mom, 20 April 2011: http://www.nextdoormormon.com/2011/04/20/why-do-all-the-mormons-i-know-have-so-many-kids/ (impression: 5 April 2019).
(23)
Medium, 8 February 2018: https://medium.com/migration-issues/how-long-until-were-all-amish-268e3d0de87#:~:text., (impression: 2 October 2020).
(25)
Medium, op. cit.
(26)
Kaufmann, Eric, Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth? Demography and Politics in the Twenty-First Century, Profile Books, London, 2010, p. 35; Evans, Simon N. and Peller, Peter, “A Brief History of Hutterite Demography”, Great Plains Quarterly, 35, 1, 2015, pp. 79–101.
(27)
Times of Israel, 21 June 2018: https://www.timesofisrael.com/ultra-orthodox-reverse-uk-jewish-population-decline-study-finds/ (impression: 12 March 2019).
(28)
World Population Review https://worldpopulationreview.com/us-cities/kiryas-joel-ny-population (impression: 22 October 2021).
(29)
Financial Times, 7 April 2019: https://www.ft.com/content/dae642aa-5601-11e9-a3db-1fe89bedc16e (impression: 9 April 2019).
(30)
Schellekens, Jona and Anson, Jon, eds, Israel’s Destiny: Fertility and Mortality in a Divided Society, New Brunswick and London, Transaction Publishers, 2007.
(31)
Mercatornet, 19 February 2019: https://mercatornet.com/israel-is-having-far-more-babies-than-any-other-developed-country/24064/ (impression: 21 August 2020), Smith, Tom, Jewish Distinctiveness in America, a Statistical Portrait, 2005, p. 73: https://www.jewishdatabank.org/databank/search-results/study/617 (impression: 31 January 2020).
(32)
Kaa, D. J. van de, Europe’s Second Demographic Transition, Washington DC, Population Reference Bureau, 1987.
(33)
Kaufmann, op. cit., p. 130.
(34)
Ibid., passim.
(35)
New York Jewish Week, 17 August 2016: https://jewishweek.timesofisrael.com/orthodox-dropouts-still-tethered-to-faith/ (impression: 23 March 2020).
(38)
Italy Magazine, 12 April 2008: https://www.italymagazine.com/italy/science/less-sex-italian-couples-drop-male-sex-drive-blamed (impression: 9 April 2019).
(39)
Time, 26 October 2018: http://time.com/5297145/is-sex-dead/ (impression: 9 April 2019).
(40)
Kornich, Sabion, Brines, Julie and Leupp, Katrina, “Egalitarianism, Housework and Sexual Frequency in Marriage”, American Sociological Review, 78 (1), 2012, pp. 26–50.
(41)
Ibid
(42)
Martine, George: “Brazil’s Fertility Decline 1965–1995: A Fresh Look at Key Factors”, pp. 169–207 in Martine, George, Das Gupta, Monica and Chen, Lincoln C., eds, Reproductive Change in India and Brazil, Delhi and Oxford, Oxford University Press, 1998.
(43)
Birley, Daniel A., Tropf, Felix C. and Mills, Melinda C., “What Explains the Heritability of Completed Fertility? Evidence from Two Large Twin Studies”, Behaviour Genetics, 47, 2017, pp. 36–51; Guardian, 3 June 2015: https://www.theguardian.com/science/2015/jun/03/genetics-plays-role-in-deciding-at-what-age-women-have-first-child-says-study (impression: 2 October 2020).
(44)
Rosling, Hans, TED Talks: https://www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_religions_and_babies/transcript (impression: 21 December 2018).
(45)
United Nations Population Division 2017 Revisions (median fertility estimate).
(46)
Statistics Times, 12 September 2015: http://statisticstimes.com/economy/china-vs-india-gdp.php (impression: 10 April 2019).
(47)
Nippon.com, 25 July 2019, https://www.nippon.com/en/japan-data/h00438/japan-judged-low-on-happiness-despite-longevity.html (impression: 22 October 2021).
(48)
Bricker and Ibbitson, op. cit., passim.

الفصل الخامس: شيخوخة السكان

(1)
Statistical Institute of Catalonia: https://www.idescat.cat/pub/?id=aec&n=285&lang=en (impression: 27 October 2020). For an explanation of the median age, see Chapter 1 above.
(3)
BBC, 23 December 2017: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-42465516 (impression: 25 August 2020).
(4)
Statistical Institute of Catalonia: https://www.idescat.cat/pub/?id=aec&n=285&lang=en (impression: 23 August 2019).
(5)
Statista: https://www.statista.com/statistics/275398/median-age-of-the-population-in-spain/ (impression: 23 August 2019). Note that this source gives 27.5 as the median age in Spain in 1950; given the trend, it is highly likely that it was below 25 in the 1930s.
(6)
According to the UN data, the only country where the median age was lower in 2020 than it had been in 2015 was Germany, presumably because of the large influx of young migrants in 2015 but not counted in that year’s data. With its particularly heavy toll on the elderly, Covid-19 could have a similar albeit temporary effect on a much wider scale.
(7)
See for example Cincotta, Richard P., “Demographic Security Come of Age”, ESCP Report, 10, 2004, pp. 24–9; Urdal, Henrik R., “A Clash of Generations? Youth Bulges and Political Violence”, International Studies Quarterly, 50, 2006, pp. 607–29; Leuprecht, Christian, “The Demography of Interethnic Violence”, paper presented to the American Political Science Association, 2007. But see Guinnane, Timothy, “The Human Tide: A Review Essay”, Journal of Economic Literature 59 (4), 2021, p. 1330.
(8)
Leahy, Elizabeth et al., The Shape of Things to Come: Why Age Structure Matters to a Safer, more Equitable World, Washington DC, Population Action International, 2007.
(9)
Staveteig, Sarah, “The Young and Restless: Population Age Structure and Civil War”, in Population and Conflict, Exploring the Links, edited by Dalbeko, Geoffrey D. et al., Woodrow Wilson Center for Scholars, Environmental Change and Security Program report 11, 2005, pp. 12–19; Fearon, James D. and Laitin, David D., “Sons of the Soil, Migrants and Civil War”, World Development, 39 (2), 2010, pp. 199–211.
(10)
Staveteig, op. cit.
(11)
Statista: www.statista.com/statistics/454349/population-by-age-group-germany/ (impression: 2 October 2020).
(12)
BBC, 10 August 2015: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-33713015 (impression: 14 December 2020).
(13)
Independent, 18 February 2016: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/why-areteenagers-so-moody-a6874856.html (impression: 6 March 2020).
(14)
Johnson, Sara B., Blum, Robert W. and Giedd, Jay N., “Adolescent Maturity and the Brain: The Promise and Pitfalls of Neuroscience Research in Adolescent Health Policy”, Journal of Adolescent Health, 45 (3), 2009, pp. 216–21.
(16)
Regev, Shirley, Rolison, Jonathan J. and Moutari, Salissou, “Crash risk by driver age, gender, and time of day using a new exposure methodology”, Journal of Safety Research, 66, 2018, pp. 131–40.
(17)
Mulderig, M. Chloe, “An Uncertain Future: Youth Frustration and the Arab Spring”, Boston University Pardee Papers, 16 2013, pp. 15, 23 and passim.
(19)
Jerusalem Post, 4 September 2019: https://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Hezbollahs-demographic-problem-explains-its-restraint-600568 (impression: 8 March 2020).
(20)
See UN Population Division, https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/ (impression: 24 October 2021).
(21)
Pacific Standard, 14 July 2017: https://psmag.com/social-justice/pax-americana-geriatrica-4416 (impression: 24 October 2021).
(22)
Morland, Paul, Demographic Engineering: Population Strategies in Ethnic Conflict, Farnham, Ashgate, 2014.
(23)
Ibid., passim.
(24)
Ceterchi, Ioan, Zlatescu, Victor, Copil, Dan, and Anca, Peter, Law and Population Growth in Romania, Bucharest, Legislative Council of the Socialist Republic of Romania, 1974.
(25)
Gatrell, Peter, The Unsettling of Europe: The Great Migration, 1945 to the Present, London, Allen Lane, 2019.
(26)
King, Leslie, “Demographic Trends, Pro-Natalism and Nationalist Ideologies”, Ethnic and Racial Studies, 25 (3), 2002, pp. 21–51.
(27)
Morland, Paul, Demographic Engineering, pp. 99–109.
(28)
Ibid., pp. 93–8.
(29)
Guardian, 7 March 2018: https://www.theguardian.com/media/2018/mar/07/nme-ceases-print-edition-weekly-music-magazine (impression: 25.
March 2019); 2018 Cruise Industry Overview: https://www.f-cca.com/downloads/2018-Cruise-Industry-Overview-and-Statistics.pdf (impression: 25 March 2020).
(30)
BBC News, 15 March 2019: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-35126667 (impression: 13 March 2020).
(33)
World Atlas: https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/murder-rates-by-country.html (impression: 23 August 2019).
(35)
E.g. Kahn, Samuel, “Reconsidering the Donohue–Levitt Hypothesis”, American Catholic Philosophical Quarterly, September 2016, pp. 583–620.
(36)
Griffith, Gwyn and Norris, Gareth, “Explaining the Crime Drop: Contributions to Declining Crime Rates from Youth Cohorts since 2005”, Crime, Law and Social Change, 73, 2020, pp. 25–53.
(37)
Dyson, Tim and Wilson, Ben, “Democracy and the Demographic Transition”, LSE Research Online, 2016: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/66620/1/Wilson_Democracy%20and%20the%20demographic%20transition.pdf (impression: 25 September 2020).

الفصل السادس: الهِرَم

(1)
There is probably a slightly greater number of centenarians in the US, but it has a population two-and-half times that of Japan. China has a similar number, but in a population more than ten times larger.
(3)
Guinness Book of World Records, 21 January 2019: www.guinnessworldrecords.com/news/2019/1/worlds-oldest-man-masazo-nonaka-dies-at-his-home-in-japan-aged-113-556396/ (impression: 27 August 2019).
(4)
Jewish Chronicle, 3 April 2020, p. 41.
(5)
Prospect, May 2020, p. 8.
(6)
Zak, Nikolay, Jeanne Calment: The Secret of Longevity: www.researchgate.net/publication/329773795_Jeanne_Calment_the_secret_of_longevity (impression: 7 April 2020).
(7)
National Geographic, 6 April 2017: www.nationalgeographic.com/books/features/5-blue-zones-where-the-worlds-healthiest-people-live/ (impression: 7 April 2020).
(8)
For a full explanation of life expectancy, see Morland, Paul, The Human Tide: How Population Shaped the Modern World, London, John Murray, 2020, pp. 283–5; for a somewhat simplified explanation, see the 2019 version of the same work.
(9)
Gratton, Lynda and Scott, Andrew, The 100-Year Life: Living and Working in an Age of Longevity, London, Bloomsbury Business, 2017, p. 26.
(11)
Financial Times, 23 April 2019: https://www.ft.com/content/b1369286-60f4-11e9-a27a-fdd51850994c (impression: 14 April 2020).
(12)
For an example of the growing literature linking stagnant economies with low fertility and slow population growth, see Jones, Charles I., The End of Economic Growth? Unintended Consequences of a Declining Population, Stanford NBER, 2020.
(13)
World Economic Forum: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/02/japan-s-workforce-will-shrink-20-by-2040/ (impression: 31 March 2020).
(14)
Macrotrends: www.macrotrends.net/2593/nikkei-225-index-historical-chart-data (impression: 31 March 2020).
(15)
World Bank: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=JP (impression: 31 March 2020).
(16)
Macrotrends: www.macrotrends.net/countries/JPN/japan/inflation-rate-cpi (impression: 31 March 2020).
(18)
Vollrath, Dietrich, Fully Grown: Why a Stagnant Economy is a Sign of Success, Chicago and London, University of Chicago Press, 2020, p. 63.
(19)
Financial Times, 17 October 2020: https://www.ft.com/content/8b2fbf82-8cbe-487e-af63-b3b006f9672d (impression: 18 October 2020).
(20)
See for example Kelton, Stephanie, The Deficit Myth: Modern Monetary Theory and the Birth of the People’s Economy, New York, Public Affairs, 2020. Kelton’s work provides a thorough outline of the theory and a justification for it but does not make the argument that it is required now in a way it has not been in the past because of demography.
(21)
For share of wealth by cohort see Washington Post, 13 December 2019: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/12/03/precariousness-modern-young-adulthood-one-chart/ (impression: 14 December 2020).
(22)
Goodhart, Charles and Pradhan, Manoj, The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality and an Inflation Revival, Cham Switzerland, Palgrave Macmillan, 2020.
(23)
A Measured View of Healthcare: https://measuredview.wordpress.com/2014/10/07/15/ (impression: 3 April 2020).
(24)
Global Spending on Health: A World Transition, World Health Organization 2019, p. 6: https://www.who.int/health_financing/documents/health-expenditure-report-2019.pdf?ua=1 (impression: 14 April 2019).
(26)
The Gerontologist, 54 (1), February 2014: https://academic.oup.com/gerontologist/article/54/1/5/561938 (impression: 3 April 2020).
(27)
As to whether pay-as-you-go welfare is a Ponzi scheme, it may appear so on the face of the matter. But once again, it is worth referring to the proponents of Modern Monetary Theory who argue that, providing the country is able to produce the resources and services required without inflation or unfinanceable trade deficits, it is not. This is a debate I am happy to leave to the economist.
(28)
New York Times, 11 January 2020: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/11/world/europe/france-pension-protests.html (impression: 3 April 2020).
(29)
Goodhart and Pradhan, op. cit., pp. 49–50.
(33)
British Election Study, 12 February 2018: www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-impact/youthquake-a-reply-to-our-critics/#.XpLlI25FyUm (impression: 12 April 2020).
(34)
Nature, 28 August 2020: www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02483-2 (impression: 19 October 2020).
(36)
Lord Ashcroft Polls, 15 March 2019: https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/03/a-reminder-of-how-britain-voted-in-the-eu-referendum-and-why/ (impression: 12 April 2020).
(37)
For the American case see Washington Post, 11 February 2019: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2019/02/11/yes-young-people-voted-at-higher-rates-in-2018-but-so-did-every-age-group/ (impression: 25 September 2020).
(38)
Pew Research Center, 9 August 2018: https://www.people-press.org/2018/08/09/an-examination-of-the-2016-electorate-based-on-validated-voters/ (impression: 5 April 2020).
(41)
This Retirement Life, 20 February 2020: https://thisretirementlife.com/2020/02/28/retiring-to-costa-rica/ (impression: 16 October 2020).
(42)
The Economist, 4 April 2020, p. 45.
(43)
Financial Times, 13 December 2019: https://www.ft.com/content/b909e162-11f6-44f3-8eab-ebc48d8c6976 (impression: 13 April 2020).
(45)
Bangkok Post, 11 December 2018: https://www.bangkokpost.com/life/social-and-lifestyle/1591554/how-the-old-stay-young (impression: 11 December 2018).
(48)
Ibid.
(49)
Health Equity in England: The Marmot Review 10 Years On: Institute of Health Equity, pp. 15–18: https://www.health.org.uk/sites/default/files/upload/publications/2020/Health%20Equity%20in%20England_The%20Marmot%20Review%2010%20Years%20On_full%20report.pdf (impression: 14 April 2020).
(52)
Cavendish, Camilla, Extra Time: 10 Lessons for an Ageing World, London, HarperCollins, 2019, p. 24.
(53)
Dorling, Danny and Gietel-Basten, Stuart, Why Demography Matters, Cambridge, Polity, 2018, p. 49.

الفصل السابع: انخفاض عدد السكان

(1)
Making the History of 1989, item #310: http://chnm.gmu.edu/1989/items/show/319 (impression: 17 December 2018).
(2)
Öktem, Kerem, “The Nation’s Imprint: Demographic Engineering and the Change of Toponymes in Republican Turkey”, European Journal of Turkish Studies, 7, 2008, passim.
(3)
Morland, Paul, The Human Tide: How Population Shaped the Modern World, London, John Murray, 2019, p. 188.
(4)
Note that Bulgarian women are in fact having their children relatively early, with the average first birth at around twenty-six.
(6)
Financial Times, 15 October 2020: https://www.ft.com/content/5dafc7e1-d233-48c4-bd6b-90a2ed45a6e7 (impression: 16 October 2020).
(7)
DW, 25 November 2018: https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-lonely-dead/a-46429694 (impression: 27 August 2019).
(8)
Politico, 6 January 2016, www.politico.eu/article/germany-set-immigration-record-in-2015/ (impression: 25 October 2021).
(10)
Caritas Bulgaria, The Bulgarian Migration Paradox: Migration and Development in Bulgaria, 2019: https://www.caritas.eu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/CommonHomeBulgariaEN.pdf p.7 (impression: 17 April 2019).
(11)
Guardian, 7 May 2019, op. cit.
(12)
Financial Times, 15 October 2020, op. cit.
(13)
Keen, M. H, England in the Later Middle Ages: A Political History, Routledge, London and New York, 1973, p. 170.
(14)
Outram, Quentin, “The Demographic Impact of Early Modern Warfare”, Social Science History, 26 (2), 2002, pp. 245–72, 248.
(15)
Lee, Harry F. and Zhang, David D., “A Tale of Two Population Crises in Recent Chinese History”, Climatic Change, 2013, 116, pp. 285–308; Liebmann, Matthew J., Farella, Joshua, Roos, Christopher I., Stack, Adam, Martini, Sarah and Swetnam, Thomas W., “Native American Depopulation, Forestation and Fire Regimes in South West United States 1492–1900”, PNAS, 113 (6), 2013, pp. 696–704.
(16)
Georgieva-Stankova, N., Yarkova, Y. and Mutafov, E., “Can Depopulated Villages Benefit from the Social and Economic Incorporation of Ethnic and Immigrant Communities? A Survey from Bulgaria”, Trakia Journal of Sciences, 16 (2), 2018, p. 140.
(17)
Mladenov, Čavdar and Ilieva, Margarita, “The Depopulation of the Bulgarian Villages”, Bulletin of Geography: Socio Economic Series, 17, 2012, p. 100.
(18)
BBC News, 17 September 2017: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-41109572 (impression: 27 August 2019).
(19)
Balkan Insight, 26 February 2020: https://balkaninsight.com/2020/02/26/where-did-everyone-go-the-sad-slow-emptying-of-bulgarias-vidin/ (impression: 27 April 2020).
(21)
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 10 December 2018: https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-shelepovo-dying-village/29648412.html (impression: 20 April 2020).
(22)
Russia Matters, 13 September 2019: https://www.russiamatters.org/blog/russian-population-decline-spotlight-again (impression: 20 April 2020).
(23)
Interview with Emily Ferris, Research Fellow, Royal United Services Institute, 21 April 2020; SCMP: https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/geopolitics/article/2100228/chinese-russian-far-east-geopolitical-time-bomb (impression: 21 April 2020).
(24)
South China Morning Post, 18 April 2018: www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/2142363/rural-exodus-leaves-shrinking-chinese-village-full-ageing-poor (impression: 21 April 2020).
(25)
National Bureau of Statistics of China: http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202105/t20210510_1817185.html (impression: 9 September 2021).
(26)
The Economist, 1 May 2021, pp. 48–9.
(27)
Guardian, 13 June 2016: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/13/warning-four-killed-bear-attacks-akita-japan (impression: 17 December 2018).
(29)
Brickunderground, 24 August 2015: www.brickunderground.com/blog/2015/08/japanese_suburbs_are_the_polar_opposites_of_ (impression: 24 October 2021).
(30)
A Vision of Britain Through Time: https://www.visionofbritain.org.uk/unit/10217647/cube/AGESEX_85UP (impression: 22 April 2020).
(31)
Stoke on Trent Live, 16 January 2020: https://www.stokesentinel.co.uk/news/stoke-on-trent-news/stoke-trent-pubs-decline-numbers-3744849 (impression: 22 April 2020).
(32)
A Vision of Britain Through Time: https://www.visionofbritain.org.uk/unit/10217647/cube/TOT_POP (impression: 8 October 2020).
(33)
Lane, Laura, Grubb, Ben and Power, Anne, “Sheffield City Story”, LSE Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion, 2016, pp. 4, 14.
(34)
Financial Times, 25 August 2019: https://www.ft.com/content/c88b4c54-b925-11e9-96bd-8e884d3ea203 (impression: 22 April 2020).
(35)
Bricker, Darrell and Ibbitson, John, Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline, New York, Crown, 2019, p. 172.
(36)
Morland, Paul, The Human Tide: How Population Shaped the Modern World, London, John Murray, p. 89; Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, 24 March 2020: https://www.post-gazette.com/opinion/Op-Ed/2019/03/24/The-eternal-fear-of-race-suicide/stories/201903240066 (impression: 26 April 2020).
(37)
Sabin, Paul, The Bet: Paul Ehrlich, Julian Simon, and Our Gamble over the Earth’s Future, New Haven and London, Yale University Press, 2013, p. 22.
(38)
NBS (Nigeria), 2017 Demographic Statistics Bulletin, May 2018, p. 10.
(39)
Bricker and Ibbitson, op. cit., p. 68.
(40)
See for example Webb, Stephen, If the Universe is Teeming with Aliens, Where is Everybody? Fifty Solutions to the Fermi Paradox and the Problem of Extraterrestrial Life, Copernicus Books, New York, 2002.
(41)
Financial Times, 9 June 2019: https://www.ft.com/content/05baa6ae-86dd-11e9-a028-86cea8523dc2 (impression: 2 September 2019).

الفصل الثامن: التغير العرقي

(1)
Kidsdata: www.kidsdata.org/topic/36/school-enrollment-race/table#fmt (impression: 2 September 2021).
(2)
Lewis, Edward R., America – Nation or Confusion? A Study of our Immigration Problems, New York and London, Harper and Brothers, 1928, p. 13.
(3)
Kaufmann, Eric, The Rise and Fall of Anglo-America, Cambridge, Mass., Harvard University Press, 2004.
(4)
Morland, Paul, Demographic Engineering: Population Strategies in Ethnic Conflict, Farnham, Ashgate, 2014, pp. 149–51.
(5)
Lepore, Jill, These Truths: A History of the United States, London and New York, W.W. Norton, 2018, p. 468.
(6)
Public Policy Institute for California: https://www.ppic.org/publication/californias-population/ (impression: 27 August 2019).
(7)
Public Policy Institute of California: https://www.ppic.org/publication/californias-population/ (impression: 1 May 2020).
(8)
Kidsdata, op. cit.
(9)
US Census: https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/TX (impression: 8 September 2020).
(10)
Texas Demographic Center 14 September 2017: https://demographics.texas.gov/Resources/Presentations/OSD/2017/2017_09_14_DepartmentofSavingsandMortgageLending.pdf (impression: 8 September 2020).
(12)
New York Times, 8 June 2019: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/08/us/politics/migrants-drown-rio-grande.html (impression: 4 May 2020).
(14)
Eschbach, Karl, Hagan, Jacqueline, Rodriguez, Nestor, Hérnandez-Léon, Rubén and Bailey, Stanley, “Death at the Border”, International Migration Review, 33 (2), 1999, pp. 430–54.
(15)
Darwin, Charles, The Descent of Man and Selection in Relation to Sex, New York, Appleton and Company, 1871, p. 193.
(17)
Sunday Times, 22 August 2021, p. 25.
(23)
Coleman, David, “Projections of Ethnic Minority Population in the United Kingdom 2006–2056”, Population and Development Review, 36 (3) 2010, pp. 456, 462.
(24)
Pew Research Center, 29 November 2017: http://www.pewforum.org/2017/11/29/europes-growing-muslim-population/ (impression: 17 December 2018).
(25)
Les Observateurs.ch, 28 September 2015: https://lesobservateurs.ch/2015/09/28/charles-de-gaulle-colombey-les-deux-mosquees/ (impression: 17 December 2018).
(26)
New York Times, 7 March 2019: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/07/us/us-birthrate-hispanics-latinos.html (impression: 3 May 2020).
(27)
Dubuc, Sylvie, “Immigration to the UK from High Fertility Countries: Intergenerational Adaptation and Fertility Convergence”, Population and Development Review, 38 (2), p. 358.
(30)
BBC, 28 April 2015: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32490861 (impression: 7 May 2020).
(31)
Kaufmann, Eric, Whiteshift: Populism, Immigration and the Future of White Majorities, London, Allen Lane, 2018, pp. 201–4.
(32)
Dorling, Danny, Slowdown: The End of the Great Acceleration and Why It’s Good for the Economy, the Planet and Our Lives, New Haven and London, Yale, 2020, pp. 153–4.
(36)
Morland, op. cit., pp. 53–83. 37 Ibid., p. 57.
(37)
Thatcher, Margaret, The Downing Street Years, London, Harper Collins, 1993, p. 385; Irish Central, 30 June 2013: https://www.irishcentral.com/news/margaret-thatcher-admitted-to-irish-roots-a-great-great-irish-grandmother-at-1982-dinne-213737941-237760641 (impression: 15 May 2020).
(38)
Pew Research Center – Hispanic Trends, 20 December 2017: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/08/08/hispanic-women-no-longer-account-for-the-majority-of-immigrant-births-in-the-u-s/ (impression: 8 September 2020).
(39)
Pew Research Center – Hispanic Trends, 20 December 2017: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/08/08/hispanic-women-no-longer-account-for-the-majority-of-immigrant-births-in-the-u-s/ (impression: 8 September 2020).
(40)
Pew Research Center – Religion and Public Life, 17 October 2017: https://www.pewforum.org/2019/10/17/in-u-s-decline-of-christianity-continues-at-rapid-pace/ (impression: 8 September 2020).
(41)
Pew Research Center – Hispanic Identify Fades Across Generations as Immigrant Connections Fall Away, 20 December 2017: https://www.pewresearch.org/hispanic/2017/12/20/hispanic-identity-fades-across-generations-as-immigrant-connections-fall-away/ (impression: 14 June 2021).

الفصل التاسع: التعليم

(2)
Smil, Vaclav, Growth: From Microorganisms to Megacities, Cambridge, Mass., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2019, p. 429.
(3)
Our World Data: https://ourworldindata.org/how-is-literacy-measured (impression: 16 July 2020).
(4)
Ranjan, Amit, “Bangladesh Liberation War of 1971: Narratives, Impacts and Actors”, Indian Quarterly, 72 (2), 2016, p. 135; as Ranjan points out, there are divergent views on this number, with many believing the actual figure to be substantially lower.
(5)
The Forum: https://archive.thedailystar.net/forum/2008/march/basket.htm (impression: 14 July 2020); in fact it appears that it was not Kissinger but a more junior US official who used the term.
(6)
Banglapedia: http://en.banglapedia.org/index.php?title=Literacy (impression: 27 October 2019).
(8)
Our World Data, 8 June 2018: https://ourworldindata.org/how-is-literacy-measured (impression: 16 July 2020).
(9)
World Concern, 19 December 2017: https://humanitarian.worldconcern.org/2017/12/19/girls-education-bangladesh/ (impression: 22 May 2020).
(10)
The Diplomat, December 2017: https://thediplomat.com/2017/12/bangladesh-empowers-women/ (impression: 22 May 2020).
(11)
Smil, op. cit., p. 305.
(12)
World Bank: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SE.TER.ENRR?locations=KR (impression: 27 October 2020).
(15)
Wolla, A. Scott and Sullivan, Jessica, “Education, Income and Wealth” https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/page1-econ/2017/01/03/education-income-and-wealth/ (impression: 25 October 2021).
(16)
Schwab, Klaus, and Sala i Martín, Xavier, The Global Competitiveness Report 2017–2018, World Economic Forum, 2017, p. 110.
(17)
Loveluck, Louisa, Education in Egypt: Key Challenges, Chatham House, March 2012.
(18)
Ghafar, Adel Abdel, Educated but Unemployed: The Challenge Facing Egypt’s Youth, Washington and Doha, Brookings, 2016.
(19)
The Economist, 18 July 2020, p. 37.
(20)
Turchin, Peter, “Political instability may be a contributor in the coming decade”, Nature, 463, 2010, p. 608; The Economist, 24 October 2020, p. 76.
(23)
Kharas, Homi and Zhang, Christine, Women in Development, 21 March 2014, Brookings Institute: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/education-plus-development/2014/03/21/women-in-development/ (impression: 25 May 2020); Ugbomeh, George M. M., “Empowering Women in Agricultural Education for Sustainable Rural Development”, Community Development Journal, 36 (4), 2001, pp. 289–302.
(24)
Cornell Alliance for Science, December 2019: https://allianceforscience.cornell.edu/blog/2019/12/new-initiative-aims-to-empower-africas-female-farmers/ (impression: 15 July 2020).
(25)
Reimers, Malte and Klasen, Stephan, “Revisiting the Role of Education for Agricultural Productivity”, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 95 (1), pp. 131–52, 2013.
(26)
Government of India – Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, Literacy and Education www.mospi.gov.in/sites/default/files/reports_and_publication/statistical_publication/social_statistics/Chapter_3.pdf, p. 4 (impression: 15 July 2020).
(27)
Glaeser, Edward L., Ponzetto, Giacomo and Shleifer, Andrei, Why Does Democracy Need Education?, NBER Working Paper 12128: https://www.nber. org/papers/w12128.pdf (impression: 15 July 2020); Acemoglu, Daron, Johnson, Simon, Robinson, James A. and Yared, Pierre 2005, “From Education to Democracy”, AEA Papers and Proceedings, 95 (2): https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdf/10.1257/000282805774669916 (impression: 15 July 2020).
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Case, Anne and Deaton, Angus, Deaths of Despair and the Future of Capitalism, Princeton and Oxford, Princeton University Press, 2020, pp. 57, 59, 66.
(29)
Harber, Clive, Education and International Development: Theory, Practice and Issues, Oxford, Symposium Books, 2014, p. 31.
(30)
Global Citizen, 18 June 2017: https://www.globalcitizen.org/en/content/rihanna-learned-challenges-facing-students-in-mala/ (impression: 19 October 2020).
(31)
Harber, op. cit., p. 72.
(32)
Allais, Stephanie Matseleng, “Livelihood and Skills”, in McCowan, Tristan and Unterhalter, Elaine, eds, Education and International Development: An Introduction, London, Bloomsbury, 2015, p. 248.
(34)
Berkeley Political Review, 31 October 2017: https://bpr.berkeley.edu/2017/10/31/the-scourge-of-south-korea-stress-and-suicide-in-korean-society/ (impression: 15 July 2020).
(35)
Unterhalter, Elaine, “Education and International Development: A History of the Field”, in McCowan and Unterhalter, op. cit., p. 17.
(36)
Garnett Russell, Susan and Bajaj, Monisha, “Schools, Citizens and Nation State”, in McCowan and Unterhalter, op. cit., p. 103.
(37)
See for example Gellner, Ernest, Nations and Nationalism, Ithaca and New York, Cornell University Press, 1983.
(38)
Goodhart, David, Hand, Head, Heart: The Struggle for Dignity and Status in the 21st-Century, London, Penguin, 2020; Vollrath, Dietrich, Fully Grown: Why a Stagnant Economy is a Sign of Success, Chicago and London, University of Chicago Press, 2020, pp. 26–34.
(39)
HESA, 22 October 2019: https://www.hesa.ac.uk/news/22-10-2019/return-to-degree-research (impression: 8 October 2020).
(40)
UNESCO: http://uis.unesco.org/country/TD (impression: 14 July 2020).
(41)
UNESCO Fact Sheet 45, Literacy Rates Continue to Rise from One Generation to the Next, September 2017, pp. 7, 9.
(42)
UNESCO: http://uis.unesco.org/en/country/gq (impression: 15 July 2020).
(43)
Financial Times, 14 June 2018: https://www.ft.com/content/d110fbba-8b69–11e9-a1c1–51bf8f989972 (impression: 25 May 2020).
(44)
The work in question is Riley, Matthew and Smith, Anthony D., Nation and Classical Music, Woodbridge, The Boydell Press, 2016.

الفصل العاشر: الغذاء

(1)
World Bank, data for 1993 to 2018: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/AG.PRD.CREL.MT?locations=ET (impression: 26 October 2021).
(2)
This further assumes unchanging mortality rates and age structures. Even if these further assumptions did not hold, the impact on the rate of population growth would not be material or affect the argument. The start of the Common Era is arbitrary; in principle, an earlier or later date for the exponential growth of humans could have been chosen.
(3)
Buck, Pearl S., The Good Earth, New York, Washington Square Press, 2005, p. 37.
(5)
Kidane, Asmeron, “Mortality Estimates of the 1984–85 Ethiopian Famine”, Scandinavian Journal of Social Medicine, 18 (4), 1990, pp. 281–6.
(6)
Guardian, 22 October 2014: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/22/-sp-ethiopia-30-years-famine-human-rights (impression: 22 September 2020).
(8)
World Bank: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ag.yld.crel.kg (impression: 27 August 2019).
(9)
Global Nutrition Report: https://globalnutritionreport.org/resources/nutrition-profiles/africa/eastern-africa/ethiopia/ (impression: 16 September 2020).
(10)
Ibid.
(11)
Bourne, Joel K. Jr., The End of Plenty: The Race to Feed a Crowded World, Melbourne and London, Scribe, 2015, p. 79.
(12)
Earth Policy Institute, January 2013, www.earth-policy.org/indicators/C54 (impression: 16 September 2020); World Bank: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/AG.PRD.CREL.MT (impression: 26 October 2021).
(13)
Anadolu Agency, 21 March 2016: https://www.aa.com.tr/en/todays-headlines/ethiopia-struggling-to-cope-with-deforestation/541174 (impression: 17 September 2020).
(14)
BBC, 11 August 2019: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-49266983 (impression: 17 September 2020).
(15)
Lindstrom, David P. and Woubalem, Zewdu, “The Demographic Components of Fertility Decline in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: A Decomposition Analysis”, Genus, 59 (3/4), 2–3, 2003, p. 149.
(17)
Kumar, Amit et al., “Direct Electrosynthesis of Sodium Hydroxide and Hydrochloric Acid from Brine Streams”, Nature Catalysis, (2), 2019, pp. 106–13.
(18)
Nature, 28 July 2010: https://www.nature.com/articles/466531a (impression: 21 September 2020).
(19)
Woodruff, William, America’s Impact on the World: A Study of the Role of the United States in the World Economy, 1750–1970, London, Macmillan, 1975, p. 38.
(20)
Collingham, Lizzie, The Hungry Empire: How Britain’s Quest for Food Shaped the Modern World, London, The Bodley Head, 2017, pp. 220, 222.
(21)
For a full discussion, see Morland, Paul, The Human Tide: How Population Shaped the Modern World, London, John Murray, 2019, pp. 69–99.
(22)
Otter, Chris, Diet for a Large Planet: Industrial Britain, Food Systems and World Ecology (Chicago and London, Chicago University Press, 2020), pp. 48, 50.
(23)
New World Encyclopaedia: https://www.newworldencyclopedia.org/entry/War_of_the_Pacific (impression: 21 September 2020).
(24)
Charles, Daniel, Between Genius and Genocide: The Tragedy of Fritz Haber, Father of Chemical Warfare, London, Jonathan Cape, 2005, p. 73.
(25)
Smil, Vaclav, “Detonator of the Population Explosion”, Nature, 400, 29 July 1999, p. 415.
(26)
Smil, Vaclav, Growth: From Microorganisms to Megacities, Cambridge Mass., The MIT Press, 2019, p. 390.
(27)
Snyder, Timothy, Black Earth: The Holocaust as History and Warning, London, The Bodley Head, 2015, p. 10.
(28)
For a fuller discussion of this topic see Staudenmaier, Peter, “Organic Farming in Nazi Germany: The Politics of Biodynamic Agriculture 1933–1945”, Environmental History, 18 (2), 2013, pp. 383–411.
(29)
Bourne, op. cit., p. 74.
(32)
Sinha, Manish, “The Bengal Famine of 1943 and the American Insensitivity to Food Aid”, Proceedings of the Indian History Congress, 70, 2009–10, p. 887.
(33)
Kuromiya, Hiroaki, “The Soviet Famine of 1932–1933 Revisited”, Europe-Asia Studies, 60 (4), 2008, pp. 663–75.
(34)
Messing, Simon D., “Politics as a Factor in the 1984–1985 Ethiopian Famine”, Africa Today, 35 (3/4), 1988, p. 100.
(35)
Our World in Data – Famines: https://ourworldindata.org/famines (impression: 18 September 2020).
(36)
Mogie, Michael, “Malthus and Darwin: World Views Apart”, Evolution, 50 (5), pp. 2086–8.
(37)
Ehrlich, Paul, The Population Bomb, New York, Ballantyne Books, 1968, p. 11.
(39)
Brown, Lester, Outgrowing the Earth: Food Security and Challenge in an Age of Falling Water Tables and Rising Temperatures, London, Earthscan, 2005, p. 188.
(40)
Fuglie, Keith Owen, “Is Agricultural Productivity Slowing?”, Global Food Security, 17, 2018, pp. 73–83.
(41)
Our World In Data: https://ourworldindata.org/employment-in-agriculture (impression: 6 October 2020).
(42)
Ibid.
(45)
Ricepidia: http://ricepedia.org/rice-as-a-crop/rice-productivity (impression: 17 September 2020).
(46)
FAO: http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QCL - select regions/world total, elements/production quantity, items/crops primary/rice paddy, years 2000 and 2019 (impression: 17 September 2020).
(47)
Our World in Data: https://ourworldindata.org/hunger-and-undernourishment (impression: 17 September 2020).
(48)
World Economic Forum 23 July 2020: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/07/global-hunger-rising-food-agriculture-organization-report/ (impression: 1 October 2020).
(49)
FAO: http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/ (impression: 1 October 2020).
(50)
Patel, Raj, Stuffed and Starved: Markets, Power and the Hidden Battle for the World Food System, London, Portobello, 2007, p. 1.
(51)
Al Lahham, Saad et al., “The Prevalence of Underweight, Overweight and Obesity Among Palestinian School-Aged Children and Associated Risk Factors: A Cross Sectional Study”, BMC Paediatrics, 19, 2019: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6902423/ (impression: 17 September 2020).
(52)
Schwekendiek, Daniel, “Height and Weight Differences between North and South Korea”, Journal of Biosocial Science, 41 (1), 2009, pp. 51–5.
(54)
Dorling, Danny and Gietel-Basten, Stuart, Why Demography Matters, London, Polity, 2018, p. 66.
(55)
Paltasingh, Kirtti Ranjan and Goyari, Phanindra, “Impact of Farm Education on Farm Productivity Under Varying Technologies: Case of Paddy Growers in India”, Agricultural and Food Economics, 6 (1), 2018, pp. 1–19.
(57)
Farm Radio International, 28 June 2016: https://farmradio.org/mobile-phones-transforming-african-agriculture/ (impression: 1 October 2020).
(58)
Financial Times, 15 October 2018: https://www.ft.com/content/3316885c-b07d-11e8-87e0-d84e0d934341 (impression: 1 October 2020).
(59)
Blum, Jerome, “Michael Confino’s “Systèmes Agraires et Progrès Agricole””, The Journal of Modern History, 43 (3), 1971, pp. 295–8.
(62)
The Verge, 18 February 2015: https://www.theverge.com/2015/2/18/8056163/bill-gates-gmo-farming-world-hunger-africa-poverty (impression: 21 September 2020).
(63)
Conway, Gordon, One Billion Hungry: Can We Feed the World?, Ithaca, New York, and London, Cornell University Press, 2012, pp. 180–1.
(64)
Harvard University, 10 August 2015: http://sitn.hms.harvard.edu/flash/2015/will-gmos-hurt-my-body/ (impression: 21 September 2020).
(65)
See for example Conway, op. cit., pp. 103–24.
(66)
Bourne, op. cit., pp. 42–52.
(67)
Wired, 13 April 2017: https://www.wired.co.uk/article/underground-hydroponic-farm (impression: 18 September 2020).
(68)
Growing Underground: http://growing-underground.com/ (impression: 18 September 2020).
(72)
Conway, op. cit., p. 194.
(73)
George, Henry, Progress and Poverty: An Inquiry into the Cause of Industrial Depression and of Increase of Want with Increase of Wealth – The Remedy, New York, Sterling Publishing Company, 1879.
(74)
Churchill, Winston S., Thoughts and Adventures, London, Macmillan, 1942, p. 234.

خاتمة

(1)
See for example Shellengberger, Michael, Apocalypse Never: Why Environmental Alarmism Hurts Us All, New York, Harper, 2020 and Lomborg, Bjorn, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet, New York, Basic Books, 2020.
(3)
Our World in Data: https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace (impression: 26 October 2021).
(4)
Al Jazeera, 24 September 2021: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/9/24/at-least-350000-people-killed-in-syria-war-new-un-count (impression: 26 October 2021).
(6)
New York Times, 1 January 2018: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/01/world/asia/korean-war-history.html (impression: 24 September 2020).
(7)
The Economist, 16 October 2021, p. 21.
(8)
Barro, Robert J., Ursula, José F. and Weng, Joanna, “The Corona Virus and the Great Influenza Epidemic: Lessons from the Spanish” Flu for the Coronavirus’s Potential Effects on Mortality and Economic Activity”, American Enterprise Institute, 1 March 2020, p. 2.
(9)
The Times, 1 October 2020, p. 10.
(10)
Guardian, 7 October 2020: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/07/singapore-to-offer-baby-bonus-as-people-put-plans-on-hold-in-covid-crisis?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other (impression: 8 October 2020); The Times, 24 October 2020, p. 13; The Economist, 31 October 2020, pp. 61–2.
(11)
Medical News Today, 24 September 2010: https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/202473#1 (impression: 29 September 2020).
(12)
Brainerd, Elizabeth and Cutler, David M., “Autopsy of an Empire: Understanding Mortality in Russia and the Former Soviet Union”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 19 (1), 2005, pp. 107–30.
(13)
For a comprehensive review of the subject see Steele, Andrew, Ageless: The New Science of Getting Older Without Getting Old, London, Bloomsbury, 2020.
(14)
New Scientist, 27 September 2016: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2107219-exclusive-worlds-first-baby-born-with-new-3-parent-technique/ (impression: 29 September 2020).
(15)
Collin, Lindsay, Reisner, Sari L., Tangpricha, Vin and Goodman, Michael, “Prevalence of Transgender Depends on the “Case” Definition: A Systematic Review”, Journal of Sexual Medicine, 13 (4), 2016, pp. 613–26.
(16)
On this subject see, for example, Kurzweil, Ray, The Singularity is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, London, Viking, 2005; Tegmark, Max, Life 3.0: Being Human in the Age of Artificial Intelligence, London, Allen Lane, 2017.
(17)
For a fuller discussion see Mic, 25 May 2020: www.mic.com/p/11-brutally-honest-reasons-millenials-dont-want-kids-19629045 (impression: 26 October 2020).
(18)
OECD, 17 December 2016: https://www.oecd.org/els/family/SF_2_2-Ideal-actual-number-children.pdf (impression: 26 October 2020).
(19)
Liang, Morita, “Some Manifestations of Japanese Exclusionism”, 13 August 2015: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/2158244015600036 (impression: 27 September 2020).
(20)
For a discussion from the US perspective see for example Borjas, George J., “Lessons from Immigration Economics”, The Independent Review, 22 (3), 2018, pp. 329–40.
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